Predictions / Football / World. Leagues Cup / Real Salt Lake vs FC Juarez

Prediction Audit: Real Salt Lake vs FC Juarez Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake
Aug 12, 2026 - 01:30
3 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 43%
FC Juarez FC Juarez

The model missed the final outcome (Real Salt Lake win 3–0).

The model had projected FC Juarez at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FC Juarez Real Salt Lake ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Real Salt Lake higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Real Salt Lake -25.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Real Salt Lake 33.3% 58.9% -25.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.9% +7.8 pp Model Higher
FC Juarez 37.1% 19.3% +17.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Real Salt Lake's win probability at 58.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 25.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Real Salt Lake win 3–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FC Juarez by 25.5 percentage points (62.6% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 12, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Real Salt Lake 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · FC Juarez 37.0%
    • xG · Real Salt Lake 1.26 — FC Juarez 1.34
  2. Aug 12, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Real Salt Lake 1.63 · Draw 4.36 · FC Juarez 4.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Real Salt Lake 58.8% · Draw 22.0% · FC Juarez 19.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 12, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Real Salt Lake 1.63 · Draw 4.39 · FC Juarez 4.97
    • Implied 1X2 · Real Salt Lake 58.9% · Draw 21.9% · FC Juarez 19.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 12, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Real Salt Lake win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 01:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3090379

Closing Odds 1.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Real Salt Lake win · Real Salt Lake 3–0 FC Juarez
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Leagues Cup
  • Fixture: Real Salt Lake vs FC Juarez
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-12 01:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Real Salt Lake 1.26 — FC Juarez 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): FC Juarez
  • Model: 37.0% · Implied: 19.3% · Probability edge: +17.8 pts · Est. EV: +8.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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