Prediction Audit: West Ham vs Charlton Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

West Ham

Aug 22, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.28

2 1.20

xG Accuracy: 74%

Charlton

The model missed the final outcome (Charlton win 1–2).

The model had projected West Ham at 36.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 West Ham Charlton ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
West Ham	36.7%	69.4%	-32.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	30.4%	18.3%	+12.1 pp	Model Edge
Charlton	32.9%	12.3%	+20.6 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates West Ham's win probability at 69.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.7%, a difference of 32.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was Charlton win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
1X2: model leaned West Ham; match finished Charlton

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on West Ham by 32.7 percentage points (69.4% vs model 36.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 22, 2026 · 19:37 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · West Ham 36.6% · Draw 30.5% · Charlton 32.9%
- xG · West Ham 1.28 — Charlton 1.20
Aug 22, 2026 · 13:38 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · West Ham 1.39 · Draw 5.26 · Charlton 7.83
- Implied 1X2 · West Ham 69.4% · Draw 18.3% · Charlton 12.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · West Ham 1.39 · Draw 5.26 · Charlton 7.83
- Implied 1X2 · West Ham 69.4% · Draw 18.3% · Charlton 12.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Charlton win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 33/100 · Low

Validation: Fail
Large market gap (33 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation failed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4225441

Closing Odds 1.39

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Charlton win · West Ham 1–2 Charlton

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours West Ham; market prices West Ham instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: West Ham 1.28 xG vs Charlton 1.20 → West Ham 36.7%
Market: West Ham ~69.4% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Championship — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	West Ham	7	4	2	1	14
2	Swansea	7	4	2	1	14
3	Middlesbrough	7	4	2	1	14
4	West Brom	7	4	2	1	14
5	QPR	7	3	3	1	12
6	Charlton	7	3	3	1	12
7	Wolves	6	3	2	1	11
8	Lincoln	7	3	2	2	11
9	Southampton	7	4	2	1	10
10	Birmingham	7	2	4	1	10
11	Millwall	7	3	1	3	10
12	Stoke City	7	3	1	3	10
13	Bristol City	7	3	1	3	10
14	Norwich	7	3	0	4	9
15	Sheffield Utd	7	2	3	2	9
16	Blackburn	7	2	2	3	8
17	Watford	7	2	2	3	8
18	Portsmouth	6	2	1	3	7
19	Wrexham	7	1	4	2	7
20	Bolton	7	2	1	4	7
21	Cardiff	7	0	4	3	4
22	Derby	7	1	1	5	4
23	Preston	7	1	0	6	3
24	Burnley	7	0	3	4	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	West Ham	7	20	9	+11	14
2	Southampton	7	18	8	+10	10
3	Middlesbrough	7	14	10	+4	14
4	Wolves	6	14	10	+4	11
5	Millwall	7	13	13	0	10
6	Norwich	7	13	13	0	9
7	Swansea	7	11	5	+6	14
8	Stoke City	7	11	11	0	10
9	West Brom	7	10	7	+3	14
10	Birmingham	7	10	9	+1	10
11	Blackburn	7	10	10	0	8
12	Bristol City	7	10	12	-2	10
13	QPR	7	8	5	+3	12
14	Sheffield Utd	7	8	9	-1	9
15	Burnley	7	8	16	-8	3
16	Portsmouth	6	7	8	-1	7
17	Watford	7	7	9	-2	8
18	Wrexham	7	7	11	-4	7
19	Cardiff	7	7	11	-4	4
20	Bolton	7	7	12	-5	7
21	Lincoln	7	6	6	0	11
22	Charlton	7	6	7	-1	12
23	Derby	7	6	13	-7	4
24	Preston	7	6	13	-7	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Southampton	7	7.2	2.6	+4.6	10
2	Wolves	6	8.2	3.8	+4.4	11
3	QPR	7	8.5	4.2	+4.3	12
4	Middlesbrough	7	7.3	3.6	+3.7	14
5	Wrexham	7	5.4	3.5	+1.9	7
6	Swansea	7	4.6	3.0	+1.6	14
7	Birmingham	7	7.5	6.2	+1.3	10
8	Millwall	7	6.9	5.7	+1.2	10
9	West Ham	7	4.9	4.0	+0.9	14
10	Norwich	7	6.8	6.6	+0.2	9
11	Sheffield Utd	7	3.6	3.6	0.0	9
12	Portsmouth	6	4.5	4.9	-0.4	7
13	Lincoln	7	4.0	4.9	-0.9	11
14	Cardiff	7	5.8	6.8	-1.0	4
15	Bolton	7	2.8	3.8	-1.0	7
16	Preston	7	2.4	3.5	-1.1	3
17	Burnley	7	4.8	6.0	-1.2	3
18	Watford	7	2.6	4.0	-1.4	8
19	Blackburn	7	2.8	4.7	-1.9	8
20	Derby	7	4.5	6.8	-2.3	4
21	West Brom	7	5.4	8.0	-2.6	14
22	Charlton	7	3.4	6.5	-3.1	12
23	Stoke City	7	2.2	5.6	-3.4	10
24	Bristol City	7	2.5	6.4	-3.9	10