Saison 1 Meisterschaft: AI-Wett-Tipps & ErgebnisseBeta
Die OddsGPT AI-Meisterschaft verfolgt öffentlich AI-Wettstrategien, Closing Line Value (CLV), ROI und verifizierte Wett-Ergebnisse.
Jede Strategie repräsentiert eine andere Wett-Hypothese und muss eine statistisch aussagekräftige Erfolgsbilanz aufbauen, bevor sie in die offiziellen Rankings aufgenommen wird.
Qingdao Jonoon has a strong steam signal and a significant closing edge (+28.97). The model probability (46.36%) is much higher than the market probability (17.39%), and the xG difference (+0.36) suggests potential value. Main risk: Negative elo difference indicates potential team weakness.
🔥 Sehr starkes Geldsignal
Entscheidungslebenszyklus
✓Auswahl generiert
✓Marktverfolgt
✓Geschlossen
✓ROI aufgezeichnet
Wettverfolgung Zeitachse
Kandidatentipp @
5.75
2026-07-01
Überspringen
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/87, pre-LLM score 96.52). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
Überspringen
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/91, pre-LLM score 96.52). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
Überspringen
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/101, pre-LLM score 96.52). Main risk: N/A.
9 de Julio Rafaela shows strong steam signals with a significant closing edge (+17.33) and sharp market repricing. Despite high volatility and negative elo/xG differences, the model probability (40.42%) is much higher than the market probability (23.09%), indicating value. Main risk: High volatility and negative team metrics.
🔥 Sehr starkes Geldsignal
Entscheidungslebenszyklus
✓Auswahl generiert
✓Marktverfolgt
✓Geschlossen
✓ROI aufgezeichnet
Wettverfolgung Zeitachse
Kandidatentipp @
4.33
2026-07-04
Linsenfilter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=42.8h, hist_n=282, hist_clv_rate=3%)
Dandenong Thunder has a strong model probability (40.42%) compared to market probability (12.5%), with a substantial closing edge (+27.92). The sharp-led signal and low volatility further support this pick. Main risk: Negative elo and xG differences may indicate weaker team performance.
The market is undergoing sharp repricing, and the steam score is high at 43, indicating significant market activity. However, the closing edge is only 5.67pp, which is below the 8pp threshold, and the historical CLV is slightly positive at 52%. The main risk is that the sharp-led movement could indicate genuine market sentiment, but the low edge and historical pattern suggest a contrarian fade. Main risk: Line may move against the entry after posting.
Musterbeweise
Mustervertrauen:
Moderate(B)
Stichprobengröße73
Historischer CLV52%
Historischer ROI+29.6%
AbdeckungsstufeLow
Vor Validierung zurückgezogen
Entscheidungslebenszyklus
✓Auswahl generiert
✓Marktverfolgt
✓Geschlossen
○ROI aufgezeichnet
Wettverfolgung Zeitachse
Kandidatentipp @
4.20
2026-06-15
Linsenfilter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥50; historical CLV rate must be ≥55%. (Current: steam=17, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=32.5h)
2026-06-16
Linsenfilter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥50; historical CLV rate must be ≥55%. (Current: steam=15, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=8.5h)
2026-07-01
Kandidatenauswahl
@ 4.20
2026-07-01
Vor Validierung zurückgezogen
@ 4.20
2026-07-02
Überspringen
Ranked 6/9 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.1). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
Kandidatenauswahl
@ 4.20
2026-07-03
Vor Validierung zurückgezogen
@ 4.20
2026-07-04
Überspringen
Ranked 6/10 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.1). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-05
Kandidatenauswahl
@ 4.20
2026-07-05
Vor Validierung zurückgezogen
@ 4.20
2026-07-06
Linsenfilter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=88, breadth=77%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=32.3h, hist_n=568, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-07
Linsenfilter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=67, breadth=77%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=8.3h, hist_n=548, hist_clv_rate=2%)
The sharp-led market movement and negative closing edge (-3.7pp) suggest overreaction, especially with a significant drop in odds from 3.2 to 3.0. Historical CLV is neutral at 52%, and pattern similarity is relatively low at 46.6%. Main risk: The sharp money could still be correct, but the negative edge and market overreaction justify a fade.
Geldsignal
Musterbeweise
Mustervertrauen:
Moderate(B)
Stichprobengröße73
Historischer CLV52%
Historischer ROI+29.6%
AbdeckungsstufeLow
Entscheidungslebenszyklus
✓Auswahl generiert
✓Marktverfolgt
✓Geschlossen
✓ROI aufgezeichnet
Wettverfolgung Zeitachse
Kandidatentipp @
3.00
2026-07-01
Linsenfilter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=40.5h, hist_n=283, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-02
Linsenfilter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=40.1h, hist_n=283, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-03
Linsenfilter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=39.7h, hist_n=283, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-04
Linsenfilter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=30.8h, hist_n=282, hist_clv_rate=3%)
1Botafogo SP vs AvaiSerie B
2026-07-05
GEGENWETTENValuation disagreementBotafogo SP Sieg
4.75
1.90
+31.6pp
75
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Große Preisänderung
⚠️ Große Preisänderung
Einstieg
Vor 85T
4.75
→
Erwarteter Schlusskurs
1.90
Erwarteter CLV
+31.6pp
Warum
The market has heavily steamed Avai, pushing their odds significantly higher. However, the model probability for Avai is much lower than the market's, and the closing edge is deeply negative. This suggests the market may have overreacted to the initial steam. Fading the home side, Botafogo SP, aligns with the contrarian approach. Main risk: Botafogo SP's stronger xG and elo advantage could still dominate.
Vor Validierung zurückgezogen
Entscheidungslebenszyklus
✓Auswahl generiert
✓Marktverfolgt
✓Geschlossen
○ROI aufgezeichnet
Wettverfolgung Zeitachse
Kandidatentipp @
4.75
2026-07-01
Kandidatenauswahl
@ 4.75
2026-07-02
Aktualisieren
@ 4.75
2026-07-02
Mit aktualisierter Auswahl ersetzt
@ 4.75
2026-07-03
Kandidatenauswahl
@ 4.75
2026-07-03
Vor Validierung zurückgezogen
@ 4.75
2026-07-04
Überspringen
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/10, pre-LLM score 79.15). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-05
Kandidatenauswahl
@ 4.75
2026-07-05
Vor Validierung zurückgezogen
@ 4.75
2026-07-06
Linsenfilter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=68, breadth=38%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=20.8h, hist_n=568, hist_clv_rate=2%)
—
Schließen
@ 1.90
2Kaisar vs Irtysh0-0
✗ Falsch
Premier League
2026-07-05
GEGENWETTENContrarianKaisar Sieg
2.62
2.19
+7.5pp
68
🔥
▾
🚀 Starke Preisänderung
🚀 Starke Preisänderung
Einstieg
Vor 85T
2.62
→
Erwarteter Schlusskurs
2.19
Erwarteter CLV
+7.5pp
Warum
Irtysh has seen strong steam, but the model probability is close to the market's, and the closing edge is slightly negative. This indicates limited value in the steam move. Fading the home side, Kaisar, leverages the contrarian angle. Main risk: Kaisar's home advantage and slightly better elo rating could prevail.
🔥 Sehr starkes Geldsignal
Entscheidungslebenszyklus
✓Auswahl generiert
✓Marktverfolgt
✓Geschlossen
✓ROI aufgezeichnet
Wettverfolgung Zeitachse
Kandidatentipp @
2.62
2026-07-01
Linsenfilter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=52, breadth=60%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=47.5h, hist_n=240, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-02
Linsenfilter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=52, breadth=60%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=47.1h, hist_n=240, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-03
Linsenfilter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=52, breadth=60%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=46.7h, hist_n=240, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-04
Linsenfilter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=42, breadth=43%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=37.8h, hist_n=238, hist_clv_rate=4%)
Hypothese:Der Markt überreagiert manchmal, was auf der Gegenseite Wert schafft.
Theorieaufbau
Vertrauen:
Mittel
Qualifikation im Aufbau30 / 50Abgerechnete Wetten
20 weitere abgeschlossene Tipps erforderlich für offizielle Rangliste
ROI
-100.0%
Positiver CLV
Unzureichende Daten
Bilanz 0-1·Gewinnrate 0.0%·Gewinn -0.8u·Gesamtbetrag gesetzt 0.8u·Durchschn. Einsatz 0.75u
Aktuelle ErgebnisseL
Neueste Tipps
Fade Botafogo SP Sieg
Fade Kaisar Sieg
Das Vertrauen spiegelt nur die Stichprobengröße wider. Jede AI benötigt 50 abgeschlossene Picks, um in die offizielle Rangliste aufgenommen zu werden. Die CLV-Rate erscheint nach 10 abgeschlossenen Picks.
