Statistics / Football / France. Ligue 1

France France Ligue 1 Statistics (37)

Predictions

Ligue 1 2025/26 Season Overview

08-17
100%
05-16
  • League goals trend: Average goals per match 2.82
  • Home win rate: About 46%
  • Away win rate: About 29%
  • BTTS rate (both teams to score): About 51%
  • Over 2.5 average hit rate: About 52%
  • Most attacking teams: Paris Saint Germain
  • Best defensive teams: Paris Saint Germain
France France. Ligue 1 (37)
xG Accuracy
May 17
19:00
Lille Lille
0 1.79 2 0.56
Auxerre Auxerre
41%
May 17
19:00
Lyon Lyon
0 1.41 4 1.88
Lens Lens
38%
May 17
19:00
Marseille Marseille
3 2.19 1 1.49
Rennes Rennes
70%
May 17
19:00
Nice Nice
0 1.65 0 1.21
Metz Metz
46%
May 17
19:00
Paris FC Paris FC
2 0.87 1 2.36
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
50%
May 17
19:00
Strasbourg Strasbourg
5 1.54 4 1.43
Monaco Monaco
19%
May 17
19:00
Lorient Lorient
0 1.68 2 1.04
Le Havre Le Havre
48%
May 17
19:00
Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29
1 1.27 1 1.14
Angers Angers
89%
May 13
19:00
Lens Lens
0 1.27 2 1.77
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
66%
May 13
17:00
Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29
1 1.13 2 1.39
Strasbourg Strasbourg
82%
May 10
19:00
Monaco Monaco
0 1.12 1 1.38
Lille Lille
66%
May 10
19:00
Toulouse Toulouse
2 1.40 1 1.20
Lyon Lyon
80%
May 10
19:00
Le Havre Le Havre
0 1.23 1 1.83
Marseille Marseille
57%
May 10
19:00
Auxerre Auxerre
2 1.37 1 1.08
Nice Nice
82%
May 10
19:00
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
1 3.22 0 0.50
Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29
47%
May 10
19:00
Rennes Rennes
2 2.30 1 1.13
Paris FC Paris FC
89%
May 10
19:00
Metz Metz
0 1.16 4 1.54
Lorient Lorient
37%
May 10
19:00
Angers Angers
1 1.12 1 1.51
Strasbourg Strasbourg
84%
May 08
18:45
Lens Lens
1 2.19 0 0.96
Nantes Nantes
55%
May 03
18:45
Lyon Lyon
4 1.17 2 1.86
Rennes Rennes
44%
May 03
15:15
Strasbourg Strasbourg
1 1.78 2 1.09
Toulouse Toulouse
63%
May 03
15:15
Paris FC Paris FC
4 1.63 0 1.11
Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29
38%
May 03
15:15
Auxerre Auxerre
3 1.18 1 0.77
Angers Angers
57%
May 03
13:00
Lille Lille
1 1.85 1 0.62
Le Havre Le Havre
71%
May 02
19:05
Nice Nice
1 1.30 1 2.38
Lens Lens
63%
May 02
17:00
Metz Metz
1 1.18 2 1.90
Monaco Monaco
93%
May 02
15:00
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
2 2.57 2 0.58
Lorient Lorient
58%
May 02
13:00
Nantes Nantes
3 1.05 0 1.34
Marseille Marseille
40%
Apr 26
18:45
Marseille Marseille
1 2.64 1 1.07
Nice Nice
62%
Apr 26
15:15
Paris FC Paris FC
0 1.07 1 1.84
Lille Lille
59%
Apr 26
15:15
Rennes Rennes
2 1.64 1 1.06
Nantes Nantes
89%
Apr 26
15:15
Le Havre Le Havre
4 1.57 4 1.16
Metz Metz
24%
Apr 26
13:00
Lorient Lorient
2 1.14 3 1.41
Strasbourg Strasbourg
51%
Apr 25
19:05
Toulouse Toulouse
2 1.44 2 1.44
Monaco Monaco
74%
Apr 25
17:00
Angers Angers
0 0.71 3 2.18
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
66%
Apr 25
13:00
Lyon Lyon
3 1.19 2 1.07
Auxerre Auxerre
47%
Apr 24
18:45
Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29
3 1.42 3 2.01
Lens Lens
49%

France Ligue 1 Betting & Prediction Guides

Want to understand how AI identifies value in France Ligue 1 matches? Explore our strategy guides:

Ligue 1 Predictions FAQ

Q1: What defines the probability structure and upset patterns of France Ligue 1 in the 2025/26 season? ▼
France Ligue 1 is structurally defined by a formidable home-field advantage that exceeds many of its continental peers. With a 48% home win rate compared to just 28% for visitors, the league maintains a hierarchy where local dominance is the baseline. This 20% gap between home and away success creates a landscape where upsets are less about random variance and more about the breakdown of traveling defenses.

While many top-flight competitions have seen away win rates climb, Ligue 1 remains anchored in regional strength. This disparity means probability is not evenly distributed, making risk management essential when backing favorites on the road. Understanding that probability does not equate to certainty is vital, as long-term EV relies on identifying when a traveling side can actually defy these steep historical trends.
Q2: How does the Over/Under and BTTS data characterize the goal-scoring environment of France Ligue 1 in 2025/26? ▼
The 2025/26 Ligue 1 season presents a remarkably balanced goal-scoring profile compared to more defensive eras. With 2.83 goals per game and an Over 2.5 rate of 52%, the league has evolved into a coin-flip for high-scoring affairs. This near-perfect equilibrium forces a shift in perspective, as exactly 50% of matches see both teams score, suggesting that goals often come in clusters for the dominant side rather than a back-and-forth exchange.

This statistical parity means total goal lines are often tightly contested. Successful analysis depends on distinguishing between high-octane offensive bursts and the 50% of matches where clean sheets prevail. Since probability never guarantees a specific outcome, disciplined risk management is essential when navigating these balanced markets where the margin for a three-goal thriller is razor-thin.
Q3: How does the specific statistical profile of France Ligue 1 in 2025/26 shape its odds structure and analytical edges? ▼
Because France Ligue 1 features a massive 20% gulf between home and away win rates, the odds structure heavily weights local advantage, often inflating the price on visitors. This pronounced home bias, paired with a 52% Over 2.5 rate, creates a pattern where home favorites are expected to drive the scoring. Analytical models find an edge by identifying outliers in this 48% home win dominance, specifically when a traveling team’s metrics suggest they can suppress the league's 2.83 goals-per-game average.

The 50% BTTS rate indicates that clean sheets are just as likely as mutual scoring. This coin-flip nature means long-term EV is found by isolating tactical matchups that defy the league's balanced goal trends. Since probability never ensures results, rigorous risk management is vital when navigating these tight statistical margins.
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