xG measures shot quality, not results.
For example:
- 3.5 xG with only 1 goal → Possibly underestimated
- 0.8 xG with 3 goals → Possibly overestimated
In the long run, performance will regress to xG.
AI Application Methods
Model analysis:
- Recent xG averages
- xG differences
- Number of shots
- Conversion rate trends
Helps identify true strength.
