Statistics / Football / France. Ligue 1 / Nice vs Lorient

Nice vs Lorient Statistics & Analysis

Nice Nice
Aug 22, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.05
0 1.16
xG Accuracy: 54%
Lorient Lorient
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Nice Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 03:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4241845

Closing Odds 2.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Nice 0–0 Lorient
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.11 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 4.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Nice (1X2) 36.4 40.7 -4.4
Draw (1X2) 30.9 30.3 +0.5
Lorient (1X2) 32.8 29.0 +3.8
Over 2.5 goals 38.0 42.9 -4.9
Under 2.5 goals 62.0 57.1 +4.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 62.0% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 57.1%. The difference — about 4.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Nice (1X2) 2.27 2.39 -2.2
Draw (1X2) 3.33 3.21 +1.1
Lorient (1X2) 3.49 3.36 +1.1
Over 2.5 goals 2.11 2.26 -3.1
Under 2.5 goals 1.8 1.7 +3.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: Nice vs Lorient
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.4% · Draw 30.9% · Away 32.8%
  • xG (showing): Nice 1.05 — Lorient 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.21)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 62.0% · Implied: 55.5% · Probability edge: +6.5 pts · Est. EV: +24.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 46.4% · No 53.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monaco 4 3 1 0 10
2 Rennes 4 3 1 0 10
3 Lyon 4 2 2 0 8
4 Paris FC 4 2 2 0 8
5 Lille 3 2 1 0 7
6 Strasbourg 4 2 1 1 7
7 Stade Brestois 29 3 1 2 0 5
8 Lorient 4 1 2 1 5
9 Angers 4 1 1 2 4
10 Estac Troyes 3 1 1 1 4
11 Lens 3 1 0 2 3
12 Marseille 4 1 0 3 3
13 Auxerre 4 1 0 3 3
14 Paris Saint Germain 3 0 2 1 2
15 Le Mans 3 0 2 1 2
16 Le Havre 4 0 2 2 2
17 Toulouse 4 0 2 2 2
18 Nice 4 0 2 2 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Strasbourg 4 9 8 +1 7
2 Rennes 4 8 5 +3 10
3 Monaco 4 6 2 +4 10
4 Lyon 4 6 2 +4 8
5 Paris FC 4 6 2 +4 8
6 Stade Brestois 29 3 6 5 +1 5
7 Lens 3 6 5 +1 3
8 Marseille 4 6 6 0 3
9 Lille 3 5 2 +3 7
10 Paris Saint Germain 3 5 6 -1 2
11 Le Mans 3 5 6 -1 2
12 Auxerre 4 5 11 -6 3
13 Lorient 4 4 4 0 5
14 Angers 4 4 5 -1 4
15 Estac Troyes 3 4 7 -3 4
16 Toulouse 4 4 7 -3 2
17 Le Havre 4 2 4 -2 2
18 Nice 4 1 5 -4 2
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lens 3 7.3 3.5 +3.8 3
2 Stade Brestois 29 3 4.4 1.8 +2.6 5
3 Paris FC 4 3.5 0.9 +2.6 8
4 Marseille 4 3.1 1.7 +1.4 3
5 Angers 4 3.6 2.5 +1.1 4
6 Monaco 4 2.9 1.8 +1.1 10
7 Paris Saint Germain 3 3.2 2.2 +1.0 2
8 Toulouse 4 3.8 2.9 +0.9 2
9 Estac Troyes 3 4.9 4.8 +0.1 4
10 Lorient 4 2.0 2.5 -0.5 5
11 Le Mans 3 3.7 4.3 -0.6 2
12 Lille 3 2.3 3.3 -1.0 7
13 Rennes 4 3.7 4.9 -1.2 10
14 Lyon 4 1.9 3.3 -1.4 8
15 Le Havre 4 1.3 3.1 -1.8 2
16 Nice 4 1.5 3.6 -2.1 2
17 Strasbourg 4 4.8 7.7 -2.9 7
18 Auxerre 4 3.1 6.1 -3.0 3
Ligue 1 France. Ligue 1 Predictions