Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain Statistics & Analysis

Marseille

Sep 20, 2026 - 18:45

1 1.37

2 1.45

xG Accuracy: 78%

Paris Saint Germain

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8696009

Closing Odds 1.45

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Paris Saint Germain win · Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint Germain

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Marseille (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Marseille (1X2)	24.8	15.1	+9.6
Draw (1X2)	24.5	18.2	+6.3
Paris Saint Germain (1X2)	50.8	66.6	-15.9
Over 2.5 goals	53.5	70.0	-16.5
Under 2.5 goals	46.5	30.0	+16.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 46.5% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 30.0%. The difference — about 16.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Marseille (1X2)	6.38	6.38
Draw (1X2)	5.3	5.3
Paris Saint Germain (1X2)	1.45	1.45
Over 2.5 goals	1.37	1.37
Under 2.5 goals	3.19	3.19

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Ligue 1
Fixture: Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 24.8% · Draw 24.5% · Away 50.7%
xG (showing): Marseille 1.37 — Paris Saint Germain 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.82)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 46.5% · Over 2.5 53.5%); BTTS No (Yes 58.6% · No 41.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 58.6% · No 41.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.8%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Lyon	5	10	2	+8	11
2	Strasbourg	5	10	10	0	7
3	Le Mans	5	9	9	0	6
4	Lens	5	9	9	0	4
5	Monaco	5	8	3	+5	13
6	Paris FC	5	8	3	+5	11
7	Lille	5	8	4	+4	10
8	Paris Saint Germain	5	8	7	+1	8
9	Rennes	5	8	9	-1	10
10	Stade Brestois 29	5	7	8	-1	5
11	Marseille	5	7	8	-1	3
12	Toulouse	5	7	9	-2	5
13	Auxerre	5	7	12	-5	6
14	Angers	5	6	5	+1	7
15	Lorient	5	5	6	-1	5
16	Le Havre	5	4	7	-3	2
17	Estac Troyes	5	4	11	-7	4
18	Nice	5	3	6	-3	5

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Lens	5	7.3	3.5	+3.8	4
2	Stade Brestois 29	5	4.4	1.8	+2.6	5
3	Paris FC	5	3.5	0.9	+2.6	11
4	Marseille	5	3.1	1.7	+1.4	3
5	Angers	5	3.6	2.5	+1.1	7
6	Monaco	5	2.9	1.8	+1.1	13
7	Paris Saint Germain	5	3.2	2.2	+1.0	8
8	Toulouse	5	3.8	2.9	+0.9	5
9	Estac Troyes	5	4.9	4.8	+0.1	4
10	Lorient	5	2.0	2.5	-0.5	5
11	Le Mans	5	3.7	4.3	-0.6	6
12	Lille	5	2.3	3.3	-1.0	10
13	Rennes	5	3.7	4.9	-1.2	10
14	Lyon	5	1.9	3.3	-1.4	11
15	Le Havre	5	1.3	3.1	-1.8	2
16	Nice	5	1.5	3.6	-2.1	5
17	Strasbourg	5	4.8	7.7	-2.9	7
18	Auxerre	5	3.1	6.1	-3.0	6