Statistics / Football / Portugal. Primeira Liga

Portugal Portugal Primeira Liga Statistics (38)

Predictions

Primeira Liga 2025/26 Season Overview

08-08
100%
05-16
  • League goals trend: Average goals per match 2.67
  • Home win rate: About 41%
  • Away win rate: About 32%
  • BTTS rate (both teams to score): About 47%
  • Over 2.5 average hit rate: About 53%
  • Most attacking teams: Sporting CP
  • Best defensive teams: FC Porto
Portugal Portugal. Primeira Liga (38)
xG Accuracy
May 16
19:30
Sporting CP Sporting CP
3 2.14 0 0.96
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
61%
May 16
19:30
Famalicao Famalicao
1 1.14 0 0.92
Alverca Alverca
75%
May 16
19:30
Estoril Estoril
1 0.88 3 1.93
Benfica Benfica
72%
May 16
17:00
SC Braga SC Braga
2 1.39 2 1.14
Estrela Estrela
67%
May 16
17:00
Arouca Arouca
3 1.37 1 0.98
Tondela Tondela
64%
May 16
17:00
Nacional Nacional
2 1.46 0 1.28
Guimaraes Guimaraes
61%
May 16
17:00
Casa Pia Casa Pia
1 0.91 1 1.26
Rio Ave Rio Ave
91%
May 16
14:30
FC Porto FC Porto
1 1.41 0 0.80
Santa Clara Santa Clara
72%
May 16
14:30
Moreirense Moreirense
0 1.40 0 1.23
AVS AVS
48%
May 11
19:15
Guimaraes Guimaraes
0 1.65 1 0.80
Casa Pia Casa Pia
60%
May 11
19:15
Santa Clara Santa Clara
2 1.24 0 0.77
Nacional Nacional
66%
May 11
19:15
Rio Ave Rio Ave
1 1.11 4 1.76
Sporting CP Sporting CP
52%
May 11
19:15
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
1 1.54 3 0.99
Arouca Arouca
50%
May 11
19:15
Estrela Estrela
0 0.98 0 1.26
Famalicao Famalicao
54%
May 11
19:15
Benfica Benfica
2 1.93 2 0.90
SC Braga SC Braga
72%
May 11
19:15
Tondela Tondela
2 1.18 0 0.85
Moreirense Moreirense
63%
May 10
19:30
Alverca Alverca
1 1.59 1 0.81
Estoril Estoril
81%
May 10
17:00
AVS AVS
3 0.77 1 2.63
FC Porto FC Porto
35%
May 04
19:15
Sporting CP Sporting CP
5 1.79 1 0.98
Guimaraes Guimaraes
41%
May 03
19:30
Rio Ave Rio Ave
0 1.21 0 1.33
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
50%
May 03
17:00
SC Braga SC Braga
1 2.00 1 0.70
Estoril Estoril
70%
May 03
14:30
Casa Pia Casa Pia
0 1.21 1 0.92
Tondela Tondela
70%
May 02
19:30
FC Porto FC Porto
1 1.84 0 0.67
Alverca Alverca
66%
May 02
17:00
Famalicao Famalicao
2 1.06 2 1.39
Benfica Benfica
65%
May 02
14:30
Nacional Nacional
1 1.38 2 0.92
AVS AVS
67%
May 02
14:30
Arouca Arouca
2 1.09 2 0.94
Santa Clara Santa Clara
58%
May 02
14:30
Moreirense Moreirense
3 0.84 2 1.13
Estrela Estrela
44%
Apr 27
19:15
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
2 1.96 1 0.81
Casa Pia Casa Pia
94%
Apr 26
19:30
AVS AVS
1 0.68 1 1.84
Sporting CP Sporting CP
73%
Apr 26
17:00
Santa Clara Santa Clara
2 0.87 1 1.31
SC Braga SC Braga
67%
Apr 26
17:00
Estrela Estrela
1 0.90 2 1.62
FC Porto FC Porto
88%
Apr 26
14:30
Estoril Estoril
0 0.92 1 1.63
Famalicao Famalicao
65%
Apr 25
19:30
Guimaraes Guimaraes
2 1.51 0 1.05
Rio Ave Rio Ave
66%
Apr 25
17:00
Benfica Benfica
4 2.30 1 0.60
Moreirense Moreirense
56%
Apr 25
14:30
Tondela Tondela
0 1.35 2 0.98
Nacional Nacional
52%
Apr 24
19:15
Alverca Alverca
2 1.47 1 1.13
Arouca Arouca
83%
Apr 23
18:00
Casa Pia Casa Pia
0 0.79 1 2.03
SC Braga SC Braga
61%
Apr 20
19:15
Moreirense Moreirense
1 0.94 0 1.26
Estoril Estoril
70%

Portugal Primeira Liga Betting & Prediction Guides

Want to understand how AI identifies value in Portugal Primeira Liga matches? Explore our strategy guides:

Primeira Liga Predictions FAQ

Q1: What defines the probability structure and upset patterns in the Portugal Primeira Liga 2025/26? ▼
The Portugal Primeira Liga 2025/26 displays a more competitive balance between travel and home comfort than typical top-flight competitions. With a home win rate of 42% against a sturdy 34% for away sides, the traditional "fortress" effect is less pronounced here than in more lopsided Southern European leagues. This narrow 8% delta suggests that away underdogs frequently disrupt the hierarchy, forcing odds compilers to respect the traveling side's resilience more than they might in more home-dominant environments.

This structural parity means upset patterns are often driven by defensive discipline rather than high-scoring chaos. While probability never guarantees a specific result, the relatively high away win frequency indicates that road teams are tactically prepared. Long-term success requires managing risk by identifying when home favorites are overvalued despite the tight statistical gap between the two sides.
Q2: How does the Over/Under and BTTS structure in the Portugal Primeira Liga 2025/26 differ from other European leagues? ▼
In the Portugal Primeira Liga 2025/26, the goal markets present a fascinating contradiction compared to most European leagues. While the 2.76 goals per game average is healthy, the BTTS rate sits at a modest 45%. This creates a landscape where the Over 2.5 market hits 56% of the time, yet frequently involves one side failing to score. This suggests a league defined by dominant individual performances and clean-sheet victories rather than the end-to-end volatility seen in the German Bundesliga.

Analytical focus should shift toward lopsided scorelines like 3-0 or 4-0, which satisfy the high Over 2.5 rate while keeping BTTS low. Because probability is not certainty, bettors must account for this "one-sided" scoring profile. Understanding that a high-scoring game doesn't necessarily mean both teams find the net is essential for proper risk management in these specific markets.
Q3: How does the specific data profile of the Portugal Primeira Liga 2025/26 shape odds and where can analytical models find an edge? ▼
The Portugal Primeira Liga 2025/26 features a unique statistical fingerprint that directly influences how odds are structured. Because BTTS is notably low at 45%, odds on "Both Teams to Score: No" are often compressed, reflecting the league’s defensive identity. Simultaneously, the 56% Over 2.5 rate creates a tight line where goal-heavy outcomes are expected but concentrated in one direction. Analytical models find edges by identifying matchups where the narrow 8% home-away win gap suggests the market has over-adjusted for home advantage.

With 2.76 goals per game, the total goal lines remain high, but the low BTTS frequency allows for strategic positioning on clean-sheet wins. Successful analysis relies on recognizing when the 34% away win rate is undervalued by traditional home-bias metrics. Remember that long-term edge depends on consistent risk management, as even the strongest statistical trends are subject to match-day variance.
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