1The Strongest vs Bolívar1-1
✗ 不正解
Primera División
2026-07-12
BETThe Strongest 勝利
2.45
2.78
-4.8pp
78
🔥
▾
🚀 強い価格変動
🚀 強い価格変動
エントリー
78日前
2.45
→
予想クローズ
2.78
予想CLV
-4.8pp
理由
The Strongest has a significant model probability advantage (61.54%) over the market probability (40.82%), indicating value. The steam score is high at 90, and the closing edge is strong at 20.72pp. The xG difference of 1.16 further supports the pick. Main risk: Negative Elo difference (-133.1) suggests potential overperformance by The Strongest or underestimation of Bolívar.
🔥 非常に強い資金信号
意思決定ライフサイクル
✓生成されたピック
✓追跡された市場
✓閉店
✓記録されたROI
ベット追跡タイムライン
候補選択 @
2.45
2026-07-12
候補選択
@ 2.45
—
締切
@ 2.78
2Gama vs Porto Velho2-0
✗ 不正解
Serie D
2026-07-12
BETPorto Velho 勝利
13.00
15.00
-1.0pp
75
🔥
▾
エントリー
78日前
13.00
→
予想クローズ
15.00
予想CLV
-1.0pp
理由
Porto Velho's model probability (29.25%) is significantly higher than the market probability (7.69%), with a strong closing edge of 21.56pp. The steam score is high at 91, and the move percentage is substantial at 73.3%, indicating strong market interest. Main risk: Extremely high odds suggest a low baseline probability of success.
🔥 非常に強い資金信号
意思決定ライフサイクル
✓生成されたピック
✓追跡された市場
✓閉店
✓記録されたROI
ベット追跡タイムライン
候補選択 @
13.00
2026-07-11
レンズフィルター
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=41.8h, hist_n=249, hist_clv_rate=4%)
Shanghai SIPG has a very strong model probability (76.71%) compared to the market probability (51.28%), with a closing edge of 25.43pp. The xG difference of 2.05 is a strong indicator of their superiority. Main risk: The steam score is moderate at 70, suggesting less market support compared to other options.
⚡ 堅実な資金信号
意思決定ライフサイクル
✓生成されたピック
✓追跡された市場
✓閉店
✓記録されたROI
ベット追跡タイムライン
候補選択 @
1.95
2026-07-08
レンズフィルター
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=43, breadth=60%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=106.3h, hist_n=226, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-10
レンズフィルター
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=82, breadth=85%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=58.4h, hist_n=537, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-11
パス
Ranked 14/114 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 87.72). Main risk: N/A.
The market is showing sharp-led repricing with a positive historical CLV rate of 52%. The closing edge is minimal at 0.13pp, indicating a tight market alignment with the model's probability. The low volatility and high pattern similarity (60%) further support this bet. Main risk: The edge is marginal, and the match has already started, which could introduce unforeseen dynamics.
資金信号
パターン証拠
パターンの信頼性:
Moderate(B)
サンプルサイズ62
過去のCLV52%
過去のROI+29.6%
カバレッジ層Low
意思決定ライフサイクル
✓生成されたピック
✓追跡された市場
✓閉店
✓記録されたROI
ベット追跡タイムライン
候補選択 @
3.40
2026-07-09
レンズフィルター
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=72, breadth=89%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=71.5h, hist_n=538, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-10
レンズフィルター
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=70, breadth=80%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=47.5h, hist_n=537, hist_clv_rate=2%)
The market is undergoing sharp repricing with a positive historical CLV rate of 52%. The closing edge is 2.12pp, which is within the acceptable range for a pattern replay. The league quality is high, and the pattern similarity is strong at 60%. Main risk: The elo difference is slightly negative, which could indicate a potential mismatch in team strengths.
資金信号
パターン証拠
パターンの信頼性:
Moderate(B)
サンプルサイズ62
過去のCLV52%
過去のROI+29.6%
カバレッジ層Low
意思決定ライフサイクル
✓生成されたピック
✓追跡された市場
✓閉店
✓記録されたROI
ベット追跡タイムライン
候補選択 @
3.70
2026-07-10
レンズフィルター
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=70, breadth=100%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=58.8h, hist_n=537, hist_clv_rate=2%)
The market is experiencing drift repricing with a significant closing edge of 5.05pp, which exceeds the acceptable threshold for a pattern replay. The historical CLV rate is positive at 52%, but the pattern similarity is only 55.9%, which is relatively weak. Main risk: The high closing edge suggests potential overreaction in the market, making this a fade candidate.
資金信号
パターン証拠
パターンの信頼性:
Moderate(B)
サンプルサイズ62
過去のCLV52%
過去のROI+29.6%
カバレッジ層Low
意思決定ライフサイクル
✓生成されたピック
✓追跡された市場
✓閉店
✓記録されたROI
ベット追跡タイムライン
候補選択 @
4.10
2026-07-10
候補選択
@ 4.00
2026-07-10
検証前に撤回
@ 4.00
2026-07-11
レンズフィルター
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=57, breadth=73%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=27.8h, hist_n=249, hist_clv_rate=4%)
1Gais vs IF Elfsborg1-0
✓ 正解
Allsvenskan
2026-07-12
FADEValuation disagreementGais 勝利
4.00
1.88
+28.2pp
68
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 大幅な価格変動
⚠️ 大幅な価格変動
エントリー
78日前
4.00
→
予想クローズ
1.88
予想CLV
+28.2pp
理由
The market has sharply drifted against IF Elfsborg, but the model probability for the away side is extremely low compared to the market. This suggests the market is overpricing Gais. Main risk: Gais could leverage home advantage and outperform their underlying metrics.
🔥 鋭い資金信号
意思決定ライフサイクル
✓生成されたピック
✓追跡された市場
✓閉店
✓記録されたROI
ベット追跡タイムライン
候補選択 @
4.00
2026-07-09
レンズフィルター
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=69, breadth=69%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=85.3h, hist_n=538, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-10
レンズフィルター
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=69, breadth=69%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=61.3h, hist_n=537, hist_clv_rate=2%)
Valentine has experienced a significant drift in odds, indicating a loss of market confidence. The model probability for Valentine is much lower than the market probability, and the closing edge is deeply negative. Despite this, the market may have overreacted to the drift. Main risk: Kahibah could capitalize on Valentine's poor form and outperform expectations.
🔥 非常に強い資金信号
意思決定ライフサイクル
✓生成されたピック
✓追跡された市場
✓閉店
✓記録されたROI
ベット追跡タイムライン
候補選択 @
2.05
2026-07-11
レンズフィルター
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=50, breadth=50%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=25.8h, hist_n=224, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-12
候補選択
@ 2.05
—
締切
@ 2.85
3Emelec vs Barcelona SC0-0
✗ 不正解
Liga Pro
2026-07-12
FADEContrarianEmelec 勝利
2.90
3.24
-3.6pp
65
⚡
▾
エントリー
78日前
2.90
→
予想クローズ
3.24
予想CLV
-3.6pp
理由
Barcelona SC has seen strong market steam, but the model probability remains significantly lower than the market's. This suggests an overreaction to recent betting activity. Main risk: Emelec's home advantage and historical performance could defy the market's drift.
⚡ 堅実な資金信号
意思決定ライフサイクル
✓生成されたピック
✓追跡された市場
✓閉店
✓記録されたROI
ベット追跡タイムライン
候補選択 @
2.90
2026-07-10
レンズフィルター
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=62, breadth=67%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=69.9h, hist_n=537, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-11
レンズフィルター
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=60, breadth=62%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=45.9h, hist_n=536, hist_clv_rate=2%)
