1Morocco vs HaitiWorld Cup
2026-06-21
BETHaiti 勝利
17.00
17.75
-0.2pp
85
🔥
▾
エントリー
99日前
17.00
→
予想クローズ
17.75
予想CLV
-0.2pp
理由
Haiti's odds have drifted significantly, creating a large positive closing edge of 22.47 percentage points. The model probability of 28.35% is much higher than the market's 5.88%, indicating strong value. The steam score of 99 and sharp repricing signal further support this bet. Main risk: High volatility and limited historical data could lead to unexpected outcomes.
検証前に撤回
意思決定ライフサイクル
✓生成されたピック
✓追跡された市場
✓閉店
○記録されたROI
ベット追跡タイムライン
候補選択 @
9.50
2026-06-17
パス
Ranked 52/86 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.25). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-18
パス
Ranked 53/94 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.25). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-19
パス
Ranked 8/118 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-20
候補選択
@ 9.50
2026-06-20
更新された選択肢に置換
@ 9.50
2026-06-21
候補選択
@ 17.00(候補選択 9.50)
2026-06-21
検証前に撤回
@ 17.00(候補選択 9.50)
2026-06-22
パス
LLM did not select this match (rank 1/65, pre-LLM score 99.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-23
パス
Ranked 4/59 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 97.17). Main risk: N/A.
Tunisia shows a massive positive closing edge of 31.83 percentage points, with a model probability of 40.92% compared to the market's 9.09%. Strong steam and sharp repricing signals highlight market inefficiency. Main risk: Tunisia's lower ELO rating compared to the Netherlands could reflect a true skill gap.
更新された選択肢に置換
意思決定ライフサイクル
✓生成されたピック
✓追跡された市場
✓閉店
○記録されたROI
ベット追跡タイムライン
候補選択 @
11.00
2026-06-18
パス
Ranked 39/94 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 56.52). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-19
パス
Ranked 62/118 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 54.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-20
パス
Ranked 8/138 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-21
候補選択
@ 11.00
2026-06-21
更新された選択肢に置換
@ 11.00
2026-06-22
候補選択
@ 23.00(候補選択 11.00)
2026-06-23
更新
@ 23.00(候補選択 11.00)
2026-06-23
検証前に撤回
@ 23.00(候補選択 11.00)
2026-06-24
パス
Ranked 8/73 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.67). Main risk: N/A.
The market has heavily steamed St. Albans Saints, pushing their odds from 1.7 to 2.05. However, the model probability (34.7%) is significantly lower than the market's implied probability (48.78%), indicating overvaluation. With a negative closing edge of -14.08 and no significant xG or Elo advantage, fading Altona Magic (away) aligns with contrarian principles. Main risk: St. Albans Saints' form may justify the market steam.
🔥 鋭い資金信号
意思決定ライフサイクル
✓生成されたピック
✓追跡された市場
✓閉店
✓記録されたROI
ベット追跡タイムライン
候補選択 @
2.05
2026-06-19
レンズフィルター
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=67, breadth=44%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=54.0h)
2026-06-20
レンズフィルター
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=65, breadth=36%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=29.9h)
Olympique Safi's odds have drifted from 1.95 to 2.45 despite strong market steam (97 steam score). The model probability (33.65%) is well below the market's implied probability (40.82%), suggesting overpricing. Elo and xG metrics also favor no clear advantage for Yacoub El Mansour. Fading the away side capitalizes on potential mispricing. Main risk: Market steam may reflect insider knowledge or lineup changes.
