Curaçao presents a significant model edge with a closing_edge_pp of 31.3 and a model probability of 34.24% compared to the market's 2.94%. The sharp-led signal and sharp repricing market state indicate potential undervaluation. Main risk: Extremely low market probability suggests a high likelihood of the bet losing, but the value justifies the risk.
Cape Verde Islands have a closing_edge_pp of 30.91 and a model probability of 34.24%, far exceeding the market's 3.33%. The model-led market state supports this value play. Main risk: The odds reflect a very low implied probability, indicating a high chance of losing despite the edge.
更新された選択肢に置換
意思決定ライフサイクル
✓生成されたピック
✓追跡された市場
○閉店
○記録されたROI
ベット追跡タイムライン
候補選択 @
30.00
2026-06-09
パス
Ranked 4/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 49.8). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-10
候補選択
@ 30.00
2026-06-10
更新された選択肢に置換
@ 30.00
2026-06-11
候補選択
@ 26.00
2026-06-11
検証前に撤回
@ 26.00
2026-06-12
パス
Ranked 10/60 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 66.95). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-13
パス
Ranked 13/109 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 85.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-14
パス
Ranked 9/117 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 89.0). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-15
パス
Ranked 6/66 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 81.23). Main risk: N/A.
3USA vs ParaguayWorld Cup
2026-06-10
FADEUSA 勝利
4.10
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65
⚠️
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⚠️ 大幅な価格変動
⚠️ 大幅な価格変動
エントリー
123日前
4.10
理由
USA's market probability of 24.39% is only marginally lower than the model's 34.24%, and the closing_edge_pp is just 9.85. This suggests limited value, and the model edge is not strong enough to justify a bet. Main risk: The model could be underestimating the USA's chances slightly, but the fade aligns with the lack of significant edge.
検証前に撤回
意思決定ライフサイクル
✓生成されたピック
✓追跡された市場
○閉店
○記録されたROI
ベット追跡タイムライン
候補選択 @
4.10
2026-06-06
レンズフィルター
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥75. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=168.0h)