Para Hills Knights show strong steam with sharp repricing and a significant closing edge of 22.85 percentage points. Despite high volatility, the model probability of 32.85% is much higher than the market's 10%. Main risk: High volatility and potential overreaction to market moves.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ has strong steam and sharp repricing, with a closing edge of 32.76 percentage points. The model probability of 63.53% far exceeds the market's 30.77%. Main risk: Elo disadvantage and potential overestimation of home advantage.
2026-07-18
ผ่าน
Ranked 12/128 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.02). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-19
ตัวเลือกที่แนะนำ
@ 3.25
—
ปิด
@ 3.08
3Ponte Preta vs GoiasSerie B
2026-07-17
เดิมพันPonte Preta ชนะ
5.25
5.66
-1.4pp
88
🔥
▾
ราคาเริ่มต้น
73 วันที่แล้ว
5.25
→
เส้นปิดที่คาดการณ์
5.66
CLV ที่คาดการณ์
-1.4pp
เหตุผล
Ponte Preta has a massive closing edge of 39.69 percentage points and strong drift signals. The model probability of 58.74% is significantly higher than the market's 19.05%. Main risk: Elo disadvantage and reliance on drift signals.
Para Hills Knights show strong steam with significant odds movement from 29.0 to 10.0, indicating sharp market interest. The closing edge is highly favorable at 22.85%, and the league quality is high. Main risk: High volatility and limited historical pattern similarity.
Hwacheon KSPO W has strong drift momentum with a favorable closing edge of 21.13%. The odds movement suggests sharp market interest, and the model probability is significantly higher than market probability. Main risk: Negative elo and xG differences.
2026-07-16
ตัวกรองเลนส์
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=32.5h, hist_n=231, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-17
ตัวเลือกที่แนะนำ
@ 4.50
—
ปิด
@ 4.91
3Bayswater City vs SydneyAustralia Cup
2026-07-17
เดิมพันBayswater City ชนะ
10.00
9.93
+0.1pp
76
🔥
▾
ราคาเริ่มต้น
73 วันที่แล้ว
10.00
→
เส้นปิดที่คาดการณ์
9.93
CLV ที่คาดการณ์
+0.1pp
เหตุผล
Bayswater City exhibits strong drift momentum with odds moving from 6.0 to 10.0 and a closing edge of 24.24%. The model probability is substantially higher than market probability. Main risk: Elo and xG disadvantages against Sydney.
FC Nordsjaelland shows sharp steam, but the closing edge is modest at 5.75%. Elo and xG differences are negligible, and historical pattern similarity is low. Main risk: Overreaction to market steam in a friendly match.
Qingdao Jonoon's odds drift upward significantly, suggesting market skepticism despite strong drift signals. Closing edge is negative at -4.66%, and the model probability is lower than market probability. Main risk: Potential undervaluation of Qingdao Jonoon's chances.
The market is undergoing sharp repricing with a slight negative move (-7.5%) in odds for the draw. While the historical CLV is slightly positive (52%) and the edge is within acceptable limits (2.6pp), the sharp-led market state suggests potential overreaction. Main risk: The edge is small, and the sharp-led signal could still indicate value.
The historical pattern shows a positive CLV rate (52%) with decent pattern similarity (57.5%). The market has drifted upward, creating a 4.26pp edge. The low volatility and high Elo difference suggest a stable environment for this bet. Main risk: The league quality is lower (B bucket), which could introduce unpredictability.
3Annecy vs FC Sion4-0
✗ ไม่ถูกต้อง
Friendlies Clubs
2026-07-17
ลดลงเสมอ
4.33
3.79
+3.3pp
60
🔥
▾
ราคาเริ่มต้น
73 วันที่แล้ว
4.33
→
เส้นปิดที่คาดการณ์
3.79
CLV ที่คาดการณ์
+3.3pp
เหตุผล
Despite a 6.52pp edge and positive historical CLV (52%), the sharp-led market state and slight negative move (-3.8%) in odds suggest potential overreaction. The pattern similarity is moderate (53%), and the Elo difference is significantly negative (-67.8), adding risk. Main risk: The edge is relatively high, which could still indicate value.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 การเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาอย่างมาก
🚀 การเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาอย่างมาก
ราคาเริ่มต้น
73 วันที่แล้ว
2.55
→
เส้นปิดที่คาดการณ์
2.21
CLV ที่คาดการณ์
+6.0pp
เหตุผล
The market has drifted against Brinje-Grosuplje, with a significant drop in implied probability and a negative closing edge. The model probability is also lower than the market's, suggesting overpricing on the away side. Main risk: Radomlje's form and home advantage may not justify the drift.
2026-07-16
ผ่าน
Ranked 8/8 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 42.68). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-17
ตัวเลือกที่แนะนำ
@ 2.55
2026-07-17
ถอนก่อนการตรวจสอบ
@ 2.55
2026-07-18
ผ่าน
Ranked 4/11 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 69.57). Main risk: N/A.
—
ปิด
@ 2.21
2Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon5-1
✓ ถูกต้อง
Super League
2026-07-17
ลดลงValuation disagreementHenan Jianye ชนะ
8.00
1.25
+67.5pp
65
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ การเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาครั้งใหญ่
⚠️ การเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาครั้งใหญ่
ราคาเริ่มต้น
73 วันที่แล้ว
8.00
→
เส้นปิดที่คาดการณ์
1.25
CLV ที่คาดการณ์
+67.5pp
เหตุผล
Qingdao Jonoon has seen a massive drift in odds, with market probability significantly higher than the model's. The sharp move suggests overreaction to early steam. Main risk: Qingdao's poor historical performance and Henan Jianye's stronger metrics.
2026-07-14
ตัวกรองเลนส์
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=82.3h, hist_n=240, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-15
ตัวกรองเลนส์
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=58.3h, hist_n=237, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-16
ตัวกรองเลนส์
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=56, breadth=46%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=34.1h, hist_n=195, hist_clv_rate=5%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
ราคาเริ่มต้น
73 วันที่แล้ว
5.25
→
เส้นปิดที่คาดการณ์
5.19
CLV ที่คาดการณ์
+0.2pp
เหตุผล
The draw option has drifted significantly, with market probability far exceeding the model's estimate. This suggests an overvalued position on the draw. Main risk: MLS matches can be unpredictable, and draws are not uncommon in tight fixtures.
2026-07-16
ตัวกรองเลนส์
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; odds move must be ≥8%; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=38, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=25.0h, hist_n=231, hist_clv_rate=4%)