Ægir has strong steam and sharp repricing signals, with significant closing edge (15.19) and a model probability far exceeding market probability (34.24% vs 19.05%). The odds movement suggests value despite low league quality. Main risk: Elo and xG differences are marginally against Ægir.
Glenorchy Knights exhibit strong steam (99) and sharp repricing with a closing edge of 8.63. Elo and xG differences heavily favor the home side, and the model probability (44.34%) exceeds market probability (35.71%). Main risk: Odds movement suggests some market skepticism.
Glenorchy Knights show strong steam with a sharp market repricing and significant closing edge (8.63%). The model probability is higher than the market probability, indicating value. Main risk: Clarence Zebras could outperform expectations despite low volatility.
Ægir has strong steam and a sharp repricing with a significant closing edge (15.19%). The model probability is notably higher than the market probability, suggesting value. Main risk: Fylkir's slight edge in xG could impact the outcome.
Deutschlandsberger SC shows strong steam and a sharp repricing with a closing edge of 9.32%. The model probability is higher than the market probability, suggesting value. Main risk: SV Kapfenberg's Elo is slightly better, which could impact the result.
2026-07-03
ผ่าน
Deutschlandsberger SC has moderate steam and closing edge but lacks compelling evidence for strong value. Main risk: Limited odds movement and low historical pattern similarity.
Sunshine Georgies has strong steam with a significant move percentage (50.1%) and closing edge (16.1%). The model probability is much higher than the market probability, indicating value. Main risk: Oakleigh Cannons have an Elo advantage and could dominate.
The market is undergoing sharp repricing with a slight negative move in odds (-5.6%), indicating potential overreaction to sharp action. The historical CLV is only marginally positive (52%), and the closing edge is negligible (0.1pp). Main risk: The match is in a low-volatility setting, which could favor a draw.
The odds have shortened significantly (-11.1% move), suggesting potential overreaction to sharp money. The closing edge is negative (-0.17pp), and the model probability (12.33%) aligns closely with the market probability (12.5%). Main risk: The high odds for a draw could still offer value if the market is mispricing the probability.
2026-06-29
ตัวกรองเลนส์
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=78, breadth=58%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=116.8h, hist_n=640, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-06-30
ตัวกรองเลนส์
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=94, breadth=83%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=92.8h, hist_n=618, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-01
ผ่าน
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/8, pre-LLM score 65.7). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
ตัวเลือกที่แนะนำ
@ 8.00
—
ปิด
@ 8.75
3Brazil vs NorwayWorld Cup
2026-07-02
ลดลงเสมอ
3.60
3.74
-1.0pp
80
🔥
▾
ราคาเริ่มต้น
87 วันที่แล้ว
3.60
→
เส้นปิดที่คาดการณ์
3.74
CLV ที่คาดการณ์
-1.0pp
เหตุผล
The market has moved against the draw (+5.9% move), and the closing edge is significantly negative (-14.1pp). The model probability (13.68%) is much lower than the market probability (27.78%), indicating a potential overvaluation of the draw. Main risk: The sharp-led signal could indicate insider knowledge favoring the draw.
1Botafogo SP vs AvaiSerie B
2026-07-02
ลดลงValuation disagreementBotafogo SP ชนะ
4.75
1.90
+31.6pp
65
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ การเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาครั้งใหญ่
⚠️ การเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาครั้งใหญ่
ราคาเริ่มต้น
87 วันที่แล้ว
4.75
→
เส้นปิดที่คาดการณ์
1.90
CLV ที่คาดการณ์
+31.6pp
เหตุผล
The market has heavily steamed Avai, pushing their odds to 4.75, but the model probability for Avai is significantly lower than the market's at 12.37% versus 21.05%. This suggests an overreaction to the steam. Main risk: Botafogo SP's home advantage and better xG metrics could justify their favoritism.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ การเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาครั้งใหญ่
⚠️ การเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาครั้งใหญ่
ราคาเริ่มต้น
87 วันที่แล้ว
5.00
→
เส้นปิดที่คาดการณ์
1.62
CLV ที่คาดการณ์
+41.7pp
เหตุผล
Mjallby AIF's odds have drifted to 5.0, and the model probability (16.5%) is below the market's (20.0%), indicating potential value on the home side. However, Sirius's xG advantage and Mjallby's poor Elo rating suggest caution. Main risk: Sirius's form may not justify their favoritism.
2026-07-03
ผ่าน
Ranked 6/9 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.53). Main risk: N/A.
—
ปิด
@ 1.62
3Tallinna Kalev vs MaarduEsiliiga A
2026-07-02
ลดลงValuation disagreementMaardu ชนะ
2.25
2.55
-5.2pp
60
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 การเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาอย่างมาก
🚀 การเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาอย่างมาก
ราคาเริ่มต้น
87 วันที่แล้ว
2.25
→
เส้นปิดที่คาดการณ์
2.55
CLV ที่คาดการณ์
-5.2pp
เหตุผล
Tallinna Kalev has seen strong steam, but the model probability (36.11%) is below the market's (44.44%), indicating potential overpricing. Elo and xG differences are minimal, suggesting no clear edge. Main risk: Maardu's poor Elo rating may still make them vulnerable.
