1The Strongest vs Bolívar1-1
✗ ไม่ถูกต้อง
Primera División
2026-07-12
เดิมพันThe Strongest ชนะ
2.45
2.78
-4.8pp
78
🔥
▾
🚀 การเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาอย่างมาก
🚀 การเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาอย่างมาก
ราคาเริ่มต้น
78 วันที่แล้ว
2.45
→
เส้นปิดที่คาดการณ์
2.78
CLV ที่คาดการณ์
-4.8pp
เหตุผล
The Strongest has a significant model probability advantage (61.54%) over the market probability (40.82%), indicating value. The steam score is high at 90, and the closing edge is strong at 20.72pp. The xG difference of 1.16 further supports the pick. Main risk: Negative Elo difference (-133.1) suggests potential overperformance by The Strongest or underestimation of Bolívar.
2Gama vs Porto Velho2-0
✗ ไม่ถูกต้อง
Serie D
2026-07-12
เดิมพันPorto Velho ชนะ
13.00
15.00
-1.0pp
75
🔥
▾
ราคาเริ่มต้น
78 วันที่แล้ว
13.00
→
เส้นปิดที่คาดการณ์
15.00
CLV ที่คาดการณ์
-1.0pp
เหตุผล
Porto Velho's model probability (29.25%) is significantly higher than the market probability (7.69%), with a strong closing edge of 21.56pp. The steam score is high at 91, and the move percentage is substantial at 73.3%, indicating strong market interest. Main risk: Extremely high odds suggest a low baseline probability of success.
Shanghai SIPG has a very strong model probability (76.71%) compared to the market probability (51.28%), with a closing edge of 25.43pp. The xG difference of 2.05 is a strong indicator of their superiority. Main risk: The steam score is moderate at 70, suggesting less market support compared to other options.
The market is showing sharp-led repricing with a positive historical CLV rate of 52%. The closing edge is minimal at 0.13pp, indicating a tight market alignment with the model's probability. The low volatility and high pattern similarity (60%) further support this bet. Main risk: The edge is marginal, and the match has already started, which could introduce unforeseen dynamics.
The market is undergoing sharp repricing with a positive historical CLV rate of 52%. The closing edge is 2.12pp, which is within the acceptable range for a pattern replay. The league quality is high, and the pattern similarity is strong at 60%. Main risk: The elo difference is slightly negative, which could indicate a potential mismatch in team strengths.
The market is experiencing drift repricing with a significant closing edge of 5.05pp, which exceeds the acceptable threshold for a pattern replay. The historical CLV rate is positive at 52%, but the pattern similarity is only 55.9%, which is relatively weak. Main risk: The high closing edge suggests potential overreaction in the market, making this a fade candidate.
1Gais vs IF Elfsborg1-0
✓ ถูกต้อง
Allsvenskan
2026-07-12
ลดลงValuation disagreementGais ชนะ
4.00
1.88
+28.2pp
68
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ การเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาครั้งใหญ่
⚠️ การเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาครั้งใหญ่
ราคาเริ่มต้น
78 วันที่แล้ว
4.00
→
เส้นปิดที่คาดการณ์
1.88
CLV ที่คาดการณ์
+28.2pp
เหตุผล
The market has sharply drifted against IF Elfsborg, but the model probability for the away side is extremely low compared to the market. This suggests the market is overpricing Gais. Main risk: Gais could leverage home advantage and outperform their underlying metrics.
Valentine has experienced a significant drift in odds, indicating a loss of market confidence. The model probability for Valentine is much lower than the market probability, and the closing edge is deeply negative. Despite this, the market may have overreacted to the drift. Main risk: Kahibah could capitalize on Valentine's poor form and outperform expectations.
2026-07-11
ตัวกรองเลนส์
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=50, breadth=50%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=25.8h, hist_n=224, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-12
ตัวเลือกที่แนะนำ
@ 2.05
—
ปิด
@ 2.85
3Emelec vs Barcelona SC0-0
✗ ไม่ถูกต้อง
Liga Pro
2026-07-12
ลดลงContrarianEmelec ชนะ
2.90
3.24
-3.6pp
65
⚡
▾
ราคาเริ่มต้น
78 วันที่แล้ว
2.90
→
เส้นปิดที่คาดการณ์
3.24
CLV ที่คาดการณ์
-3.6pp
เหตุผล
Barcelona SC has seen strong market steam, but the model probability remains significantly lower than the market's. This suggests an overreaction to recent betting activity. Main risk: Emelec's home advantage and historical performance could defy the market's drift.
