Ramalan / Bola Sepak / Argentina. Primera Nacional / San Telmo vs Racing Cordoba

San Telmo vs Racing Cordoba Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Jun 20, 2026 - 18:00
1.29
1.31
35% 30% 36%

Penilaian Prediksi

Prediksi yang boleh dipercayai

Kegemaran
Racing Cordoba Perlawanan seimbang
Kebarangkalian model
35.6%
Kebarangkalian pasaran
32.1%
Perjanjian pasaran
kuat
Pengesahan
lulus

Ringkasan:

Model dan pasaran kedua-dua lean {pasukan}, tetapi kedua-duanya tidak menunjukkan kegemaran yang dominan. Seri dan San Telmo kekal munasabah — ini perlawanan yang agak terbuka.

Audit Pasaran

Perjanjian pasaran
kuat
Pengesahan
lulus
Jurang terbesar
Seri -5.6 pp
Keluasan
7/7
Aktiviti pasaran semasa
Belum ada pergerakan arah yang bermakna.

Anggaran saksama dan harga pasaran berbeza secara sederhana. Pantau sebelum sepak mula.

Penilaian Pasaran

Pasaran dan model secara umum bersetuju dengan Seri. Perbezaan yang selebihnya mungkin mencerminkan perbezaan dalam andaian kekuatan pasukan dan bukannya perselisihan arah.

Walau bagaimanapun, San Telmo telah menyaksikan hanyut — kemungkinan dipanjangkan dengan 0.0%, mencadangkan sokongan yang lemah.

Aktiviti pasaran kini tertumpu pada San Telmo.

  • Pantau pergerakan barisan sebelum sepak mula — bukan cadangan pertaruhan.
Hasil Adil Pasaran Tepi
San Telmo 34.7% 32.58% +2.1 pp
Seri 29.65% 35.29% -5.6 pp
Racing Cordoba 35.64% 32.13% +3.5 pp

Kebarangkalian saksama daripada model statistik Poisson/xG. Bukan penentu taruhan. Bukan nasihat pertaruhan.

Keputusan pertaruhan akhir

Kecekapan harga pasaran berbeza secara berbeza — 1X2 boleh menjadi hantaran sementara pasaran matlamat masih menunjukkan kelebihan.

  • Tiada nilai pada 1X2 (Racing Cordoba lwn. odds semasa)
  • Nilai yang mungkin: Lebih 2.5 (+25%+ EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
  • Nilai yang mungkin: BTTS Ya (+25%+ EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Sabitan sederhana (6.5/10) — satu baris terpilih, bukan parlay berbilang pasaran.
Laman pertaruhan premium 1xBet: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo 1x_3342271. Daftar sekarang
Pilihan utama (+EV tertinggi)
Lebih 2.5 — Nilai
EV +25%+ Model 48.2%
Bukan hasil yang dominan (kebarangkalian model adalah di bawah 50% pada kaki ini).
Menengah (nilai seimbang): BTTS Ya (EV +25%+) — 54.5% Model
EV yang lebih rendah daripada primer, tetapi dengan kebarangkalian model yang lebih tinggi (lebih "stabil" apabila ditunjukkan).
Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol Nilai terbaik (+EV)
Ya 54.5% · Tidak 45.5%
EV Ya +25%+ · EV No -26.3%
Condong nilai: BTTS Ya
1X2 Nilai lemah
Racing Cordoba · Kebarangkalian model 35.6%
Konsensus pasaran (3 hala) 32.1%
EV garisan konsensus: -4.4%
Cerapan skor tepat Kecua / hiburan
Paling berkemungkinan
1-1
Kebarangkalian 12.6%
Skor tepat berisiko tinggi — pertaruhan kecil untuk hiburan sahaja.
Keputusan pertaruhan (model lwn. EV pasaran)
Nilai peluang — Sekurang-kurangnya satu pasaran menunjukkan anggaran +EV pada kemungkinan perpuluhan terbaik semasa (ambang: 2.0%).
Kekuatan keputusan: 6.5 / 10
  • Barisan utama dikenal pasti (+1.0)
  • EV utama melebihi 10% (+1.0)
  • Kebarangkalian maksimum 1X2 di bawah 50% (tiada 1X2 dominan) (−1.0)
  • Dua atau lebih baris +EV yang sah pada ambang (+0.5)
O/U 2.5: EV Selesai +25%+ · EV Di Bawah -28.5% (5 pasangan buku)
BTTS: EV Ya +25%+ · EV No -26.3%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

San Telmo market context before kickoff

⚠️ Pasaran tidak stabil on San Telmo

Odds move
2.70 → 2.70 (+0.0%)
Market breadth
7/7
Steam score
30 (C)
Current status
1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.

Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Kitaran Hayat Keputusan

Peringkat semasa: Pemantauan pasaran

  1. Prediksi Dijana
  2. Pasaran Berbanding
  3. Pengesahan Lulus
  4. Penutupan Dirakam
  5. CLV Dinilai
Kemasukan
2.59
Penutup
Belum selesai
CLV
Belum selesai

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

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        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
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          "market_prob_pct": 32.1,
          "model_prob_pct": 35.6,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
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          "tier": "balanced",
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          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
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        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
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        "hero_side": "draw",
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        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
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          ],
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          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
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          "paragraphs": [
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            "However, San Telmo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market activity is currently concentrated on San Telmo."
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            "At the same time, San Telmo has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on San Telmo."
          ],
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        "outcome_separation": {
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            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 35.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
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            "is_hero": false,
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            "side": "home"
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          {
            "edge_pp": -5.64,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": true,
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            "market_prob_pct": 35.29,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.51,
            "fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Racing Cordoba",
            "market_prob_pct": 32.13,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on San Telmo.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
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          "The betting market strongly prefers Draw (32.1%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Racing Cordoba, Market \u2192 Draw, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
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      "market_move_intelligence": {
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      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "7/7",
        "current_odds": 2.7,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.7,
        "pick_team": "San Telmo",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_team_name": "San Telmo",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 5.6,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 1957,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1957.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Racing Cordoba",
      "country_code": "AR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
      "country_name": "Argentina",
      "fixture_id": 1498359,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Argentina",
      "home_team_id": 1932,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1932.webp",
      "home_team_name": "San Telmo",
      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_id": 129,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
      "league_name": "Primera Nacional",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-20 18:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Dock Sud",
      "venue_name": "Estadio Osvaldo Baletto"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4266,
            "best_odd": 2.845,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0148,
            "ev": -0.0439,
            "implied_prob": 0.3213,
            "model_prob": 0.3559,
            "p_final": 0.3361
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.4121,
            "best_odd": 2.59,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0231,
            "ev": -0.1459,
            "implied_prob": 0.3529,
            "model_prob": 0.2968,
            "p_final": 0.3298
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4355,
            "best_odd": 2.805,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0093,
            "ev": -0.0598,
            "implied_prob": 0.3258,
            "model_prob": 0.3473,
            "p_final": 0.3352
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.62,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.5,
          "edge_no": -0.1426,
          "edge_yes": 0.1426,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2629,
          "ev_yes": 0.3625,
          "implied_no": 0.5976,
          "implied_yes": 0.4024,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 3.4,
          "best_under_odd": 1.38,
          "edge_over": 0.1743,
          "edge_under": -0.1743,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.6388,
          "ev_under": -0.2852,
          "implied_over": 0.3077,
          "implied_under": 0.6923,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.6388,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2968,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.02
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0148,
          "ev": -0.0439,
          "implied_prob": 0.3213,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3559,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Racing Cordoba"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1426,
          "ev": 0.3625,
          "implied_prob": 0.4024,
          "model_prob": 0.545,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1743,
          "ev": 0.6388,
          "implied_prob": 0.3077,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1498359,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.6388,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3559,
        "draw": 0.2968,
        "home": 0.3473
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3625,
        "implied_prob": 0.4024,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.545,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.3625,
          "implied_prob": 0.4024,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.545,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Racing Cordoba",
        "home": "San Telmo"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.215531,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.6388,
        "implied_prob": 0.3077,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1498359,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-15T08:13:49.727843+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
  • Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
  • Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
  • Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.

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