Ya 54.0% · Tidak 46.0%
EV Ya +25%+ · EV No -29.6%
Condong nilai: BTTS Ya
Penilaian Prediksi
Berhati-hatilah
- Kegemaran
- CA Estudiantes Perlawanan seimbang
- Kebarangkalian model
- 41.9%
- Kebarangkalian pasaran
- 29.5%
- Perjanjian pasaran
- Lemah
- Pengesahan
- Amaran
Ringkasan:
Model dan pasaran kedua-dua lean {pasukan}, tetapi kedua-duanya tidak menunjukkan kegemaran yang dominan. Seri dan Seri kekal munasabah — ini perlawanan yang agak terbuka.
Log masuk untuk melihat keputusan pertaruhan penuh
Daftar percuma untuk membuka kunci keputusan pertaruhan akhir — pasaran mana lulus, di mana +EV mungkin wujud, dan amaran steam.
Audit Pasaran
- Perjanjian pasaran
- Lemah
- Pengesahan
- Amaran
- Jurang terbesar
- CA Estudiantes +12.3 pp
- Keluasan
- 7/8
- Aktiviti pasaran semasa
- Belum ada pergerakan arah yang bermakna.
Anggaran saksama berbeza dengan ketara daripada harga pasaran semasa. Ini mungkin mencerminkan ketidaksetujuan yang tulen atau input penilaian yang tidak lengkap.
Penilaian Pasaran
Anggaran saksama statistik adalah lebih tinggi daripada pasaran pada CA Estudiantes.
- Model ini mungkin melihat perlawanan yang lebih perlahan atau lebih hampir daripada pasaran.
- Pantau pergerakan barisan sebelum sepak mula — bukan cadangan pertaruhan.
| Hasil | Adil | Pasaran | Tepi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ciudad de Bolívar | 28.81% | 35.91% | -7.1 pp |
| Seri | 29.31% | 34.55% | -5.2 pp |
| CA Estudiantes | 41.88% | 29.54% | +12.3 pp |
Kebarangkalian saksama daripada model statistik Poisson/xG. Bukan penentu taruhan. Bukan nasihat pertaruhan.
Keputusan pertaruhan akhir
Kecekapan harga pasaran berbeza secara berbeza — 1X2 boleh menjadi hantaran sementara pasaran matlamat masih menunjukkan kelebihan.
- Nilai yang mungkin pada 1X2: CA Estudiantes (+0.9% EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
- Nilai yang mungkin: Lebih 2.5 (+25%+ EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
- Nilai yang mungkin: BTTS Ya (+25%+ EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Sabitan sederhana (6.5/10) — satu baris terpilih, bukan parlay berbilang pasaran.
Laman pertaruhan premium 1xBet: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo 1x_3342271. Daftar sekarang
Pilihan utama (+EV tertinggi)
Lebih 2.5
— Nilai
CA Estudiantes · Kebarangkalian model 41.9%
Konsensus pasaran (3 hala) 29.5%
EV garisan konsensus: +0.9%
Paling berkemungkinan
1-1
Kebarangkalian 12.4%
Skor tepat berisiko tinggi — pertaruhan kecil untuk hiburan sahaja.
Keputusan pertaruhan (model lwn. EV pasaran)
Nilai peluang — Sekurang-kurangnya satu pasaran menunjukkan anggaran +EV pada kemungkinan perpuluhan terbaik semasa (ambang: 2.0%).
Kekuatan keputusan: 6.5 / 10
- Barisan utama dikenal pasti (+1.0)
- EV utama melebihi 10% (+1.0)
- Kebarangkalian maksimum 1X2 di bawah 50% (tiada 1X2 dominan) (−1.0)
- Dua atau lebih baris +EV yang sah pada ambang (+0.5)
O/U 2.5:
EV Selesai +25%+ ·
EV Di Bawah -30.6%
(5 pasangan buku)
BTTS: EV Ya +25%+ · EV No -29.6%
BTTS: EV Ya +25%+ · EV No -29.6%
Ciudad de Bolívar market context before kickoff
⚠️ Pasaran tidak stabil on Ciudad de Bolívar
- Odds move
- 2.50 → 2.50 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 7/8
- Steam score
- 26 (C)
- Current status
- Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Kitaran Hayat Keputusan
Peringkat semasa: Amaran pengesahan model
- Prediksi Dijana
- Pasaran Berbanding
- Pengesahan Lulus
- Penutupan Dirakam
- CLV Dinilai
- Kemasukan
- 3.1
- Penutup
- Belum selesai
- CLV
- Belum selesai
Enjin Keputusan OddsGPT v2.2.0
Sentiasa diperhalusi menggunakan prestasi model, data pasaran dan keputusan sejarah.
Semak Odds di 1xBet
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
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],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2446,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0301,
"ev": 0.009,
"implied_prob": 0.2954,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"p_final": 0.3255
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4147,
"best_odd": 2.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1417,
"implied_prob": 0.3455,
"model_prob": 0.2933,
"p_final": 0.3239
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4022,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0285,
"ev": -0.157,
"implied_prob": 0.3591,
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"p_final": 0.3306
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.53,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"edge_no": -0.1531,
"edge_yes": 0.1531,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2962,
"ev_yes": 0.35,
"implied_no": 0.6131,
"implied_yes": 0.3869,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 3.4,
"best_under_odd": 1.34,
"edge_over": 0.1884,
"edge_under": -0.1884,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.6388,
"ev_under": -0.3059,
"implied_over": 0.2936,
"implied_under": 0.7064,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6388,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2933,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0301,
"ev": 0.009,
"implied_prob": 0.2954,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "CA Estudiantes"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1531,
"ev": 0.35,
"implied_prob": 0.3869,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1884,
"ev": 0.6388,
"implied_prob": 0.2936,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498349,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6388,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4185,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.2882
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.35,
"implied_prob": 0.3869,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.35,
"implied_prob": 0.3869,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "CA Estudiantes",
"home": "Ciudad de Bol\u00edvar"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.215531,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6388,
"implied_prob": 0.2936,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498349,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T08:10:44.042091+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
- Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
- Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
- Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.
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