Market Movement - Spain - La Liga
Near kickoff: publish line vs. current sharp price — pseudo-CLV and whether the market followed or faded your signal.
Today's Market Analysis
- 2 fixtures saw meaningful repricing today (avg 25.5% move).
- Strongest steam: Barcelona vs Getafe (44.1%, 10 books).
- 1 fixtures showed broad consensus.
- 2 finished matches already carry closing-line validation.
Today's Market Health
Moderate liquidity · Strong consensus · Reliable closing data · Volatile repricing
Market Metrics
-
Steam Activity 1 moves > thresholdLow
-
Bookmaker Consensus 1 broad repricing eventsLow
-
Market Trend 50% shortening · 50% lengtheningLow
-
CLV Context 2 fixtures with CLV dataActive
League Intelligence (30 days)
La Liga (Spain) markets are monitored for opening odds, steam repricing, and closing-line movement across major sportsbooks. Domestic league fixtures typically offer steadier liquidity and more predictable closing lines than cup ties. When sufficient pricing data is available, OddsGPT tracks breadth, steam score, and CLV validation for each fixture.Over the last 30 days, average steam score reached 53.3 while bookmaker consensus averaged 56% breadth, with 1 steam-backed repricing events.
Over the past 30 days, Spain - La Liga has produced moderate steam activity with an average Steam Score of 53.3. Typical line moves averaged 19.2% and the largest swing reached 44.1%. Historical closing-line validation has remained balanced (50% positive). Home-side steam represented 0.0% of tracked signals; favourites drew 0.0% of steam-backed moves.
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| Match(2) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona vs Getafe La Liga · Sat 16:30 | Draw | 17.0 |
9.5
since pub · 132h 47m |
↓ -44.1%
17.0
9.5
🐢 Slow drift over 132h 47m 18.49 → 9.26 → 9.50 |
🔥 Strong steam | Bet365 |
8/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -44.1%
Pinnacle Sharp
↓ -37.6%
1xBet
↓ -25.7%
William Hill
↓ -15.4%
Marathonbet
↓ -14.3%
Betano
↓ -11.6%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -10.0%
Dafabet
↓ -8.3%
|
Steam Score:
93
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +24/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +18/18
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest move today | Sharp repricing | P20: 11.00 · P10: 11.00 · P5: 11.00 · P1: 11.00 | 8/10 books synchronized on Draw (44.1% steam, score 93) — high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks. |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club La Liga · Sat 12:00 | Rayo Vallecano | 2.9 |
3.1
since pub · 129h 14m |
↑ +6.9%
2.9
3.1
🐢 Slow drift over 129h 14m 3.12 → 2.56 → 3.10 |
⚠️ Volatile market | Bet365 |
2/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +6.9%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +5.9%
|
Steam Score:
21
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +15/45
Book synchronization: +6/30
Books reacting: +4/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest closing-window shift | Volatile | P20: 3.10 · P10: 3.10 · P5: 3.10 · P1: 3.10 | Volatile two-way pricing on Rayo Vallecano (swing 3.12 → 2.56 → 3.10) — net 6.9% but intraday chop is elevated. |