1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Rayo Vallecano
- Model probability
- 47.6%
- Market probability
- 30.7%
- Difference
- +17.0 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- +6.9%
Positive Edge
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Prediction
Model lean is not a Primary bet — one answer only below.
AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet
7.1/10
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
Reason
Market Quality Risk
Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).
Other factors
- Calibration Risk
Consensus EV
+49.7%
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
17.0 pp
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
60/100 · Moderate
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
Login to see the full betting verdict
Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings.
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.
Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Decision Model vs Market
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
| Decision Model | 47.6% |
| Market (no-vig) | 30.7% |
| Difference | +17.0 pp |
Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Decision Model probability exceeds market expectationDecision Model 47.6% vs Market 30.7%
- ✓Risk-adjusted EV passes Primary threshold (≥ +5.0%)+49.7%
- ✓Clear directional model signal: Rayo Vallecano
Risk factors
- ✗Elevated xG uncertaintyModel confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
- ✗Market moved against Athletic Club2.3 → 2.6 · ↑ +13.0%
Market Intelligence
Market drift · Rayo Vallecano · ↑ +6.9%
2.90 → 3.10
Breadth
2/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +6.9%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +5.9%
Move Score
21 (C)
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
PhaseVolatile
30m move+0.0%
VelocityLow
StatusVolatile market
CLV+0.00 pp
Ref bookBet365
Since decision: 2.60 → 3.10
Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Over 2.5
- Model probability (Over)
- 71.3%
- Market probability (Over)
- 47.6%
- Difference
- +23.7 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- +12.1%
Positive Edge
Total Goals (Model)
BTTS (Yes)
- Lean
- Yes
- Model probability
- 71.1%
- Market probability
- 53.8%
- Difference
- +17.3 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- +5.6%
Positive Edge
BTTS Yes 71.1%
BTTS No 28.9%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 2-1
- Model probability (2-1)
- 8.7%
- Market probability (2-1)
- 9.5%
- Difference
- -0.8 pp
- EV @ Market Odds
- -8.6%
No Value
Top 5 Model Scores
- 2-1 8.7%
- 1-1 8.4%
- 2-2 7.0%
- 1-2 6.7%
- 3-1 6.0%
Match Phase: Live · INT
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Waiting for kickoff
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 3.1
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing 3.1
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV +0.0 pp
Final Verdict
AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet
The Decision Model estimates Rayo Vallecano at 47.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.7%.
Decision Summary
- Decision Model identifies Rayo Vallecano as the value side (47.6%)
- Market broadly agrees with the direction
- Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary
- Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Rayo Vallecano & Athletic Club!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Spain. La Liga Predictions
