Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Rayo Vallecano
Oct 10, 2026 - 12:00 INT
0 2.08
0 1.61
Athletic Club
Opening
+0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
+0.25
PRE1 consensus
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
5 / 7 books · 71% agreement · Strong
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Rayo Vallecano opened at +0.25 against Athletic Club in the La Liga. The current market consensus is 0. The closing line is +0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Rayo Vallecano from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 7 valid books, with 71% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.44
Rayo Vallecano -0.44

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Rayo Vallecano 0
Model–Market Gap
0.44
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 5 / 7 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.44 AH points more toward Rayo Vallecano than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Rayo Vallecano 0
@ 2.04
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.44
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.62
Price Advantage
+25.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 7 valid books · 71% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 3 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 2.17 / 1.71 0 1.98 / 1.85 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.84 / 1.53 0 2.04 / 1.89 — -0.25
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25 1.67 / 1.65 +0.25 1.68 / 1.65 — 0
Bet365 +0.25 1.82 / 1.50 0 2.00 / 1.85 +0.25 -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.61 / 1.96 0 2.04 / 1.90 0 +0.25
Betano +0.25 1.83 / 1.53 -0.50 2.75 / 2.57 — -0.75
BetVictor -0.25 2.46 / 1.93 0 1.89 / 1.78 — +0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.44
xG 2.08 / 1.61 · pre-match
Market Handicap
+0.25
Closing consensus
Market Odds
1.68
Rayo Vallecano @ +0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.51
Rayo Vallecano @ +0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.68 vs 1.51
Market price is 11.3% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 11.50 9.30
-1.75 7.04 6.26
-1.50 5.40 4.90
-1.25 5.02 4.52
-1.00 4.60 4.15
-0.75 3.22 2.98
-0.25 2.41 2.14
0 2.04 1.90
+0.25 1.66 1.66
+0.75 1.34 1.31
+1.00 1.19 1.16
+1.25 1.15 1.14
+1.50 1.12 1.10
+1.75 1.06 1.05

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.75 5.50
-1.25 5.25 4.80
-1.00 4.50 4.15
-0.75 3.30 3.10
-0.50 2.68 2.50
-0.25 2.35 2.20
0 2.00 1.85
+0.25 1.65 1.58
+0.50 1.50 1.45
+0.75 1.35 1.32
+1.00 1.22 1.19
+1.25 1.18 1.16
+1.50 1.15 1.14

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.25 5.30 4.80
-1.00 4.70 4.25
-0.75 3.25 3.00
-0.50 2.59 2.44
-0.25 2.25 2.12
0 1.89 1.78
+0.25 1.62 1.55
+0.50 1.47 1.42
+0.75 1.32 1.28
+1.00 1.17 1.14
+1.25 1.13 1.11

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.75 2.57
+0.50 1.53 1.47

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.90 6.30
-1.50 5.40 4.90
-1.25 5.00 4.55
-1.00 4.60 4.15
-0.75 3.22 2.99
-0.25 2.29 2.14
0 1.98 1.85
+0.25 1.66 1.58
+0.75 1.35 1.31
+1.00 1.19 1.16
+1.25 1.15 1.13
+1.50 1.12 1.10
+1.75 1.06 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 5.17 4.63
-0.75 3.57 3.28
-0.50 2.87 2.67
-0.25 2.45 2.28
0 2.04 1.89
+0.25 1.71 1.62
+0.50 1.53 1.47
+0.75 1.38 1.33
+1.00 1.23 1.20

SBO Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.35 2.29
+0.25 1.68 1.65
Primary Bets
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