Market Movement - Spain - Primera División RFEF Group 2
Track real-time closing odds movement across major football sportsbooks. Compare opening lines, current market prices, steam moves, and sharp betting activity to identify potential Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunities.
Today's Market Analysis
- 4 fixtures saw meaningful repricing today (avg 21.6% move).
- Strongest steam: Europa Fc vs Rayo Majadahonda (22.7%, 9 books).
- 4 fixtures showed broad consensus.
- 1 finished matches already carry closing-line validation.
Today's Market Health
Moderate liquidity · Strong consensus · Reliable closing data
Market Metrics
-
Steam Activity 4 moves > thresholdModerate
-
Bookmaker Consensus 4 broad repricing eventsLow
-
Market Trend 50% shortening · 50% lengtheningLow
-
CLV Context 1 fixtures with CLV dataActive
Top Movers
- 1 ↑ +37.5%
- 2 ↓ -22.7%
- 3 ↑ +16.1%
Biggest Steam
-
Europa Fc vs Rayo Majadahonda ↓ -22.7% Steam 78
-
2
Antequera vs Real Jaén ↑ +37.5% Steam 74
-
3
Teruel vs Huesca ↓ -10.3% Steam 59
Highest Breadth
-
1
Antequera vs Real Jaén ↑ +37.5% 7/7
-
2
Real Madrid II vs Alcorcon ↑ +16.1% 7/9
-
3
Teruel vs Huesca ↓ -10.3% 6/9
Most Books Agree
-
1
Europa Fc vs Rayo Majadahonda ↓ -22.7%
-
2
Teruel vs Huesca ↓ -10.3%
-
3
Real Madrid II vs Alcorcon ↑ +16.1%
Fastest Odds Change
-
1
Antequera vs Real Jaén ↑ +37.5%
-
2
Europa Fc vs Rayo Majadahonda ↓ -22.7%
-
3
Real Madrid II vs Alcorcon ↑ +16.1%
📊 Top Edge Today
Largest fair-vs-market gaps before kickoff — AI value side vs where money is flowing.
| Match | AI Edge | Market Move | Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid II vs Alcorcon | Real Madrid II | Alcorcon ↑ +16.1% | -9.6 pp | Market Ahead |
| Teruel vs Huesca | Teruel | Teruel ↓ -10.3% | +8.2 pp | Mild Value |
| Antequera vs Real Jaén | Antequera | Real Jaén ↑ +37.5% | -6.7 pp | Market Ahead |
| Europa Fc vs Rayo Majadahonda | Rayo Majadahonda | Rayo Majadahonda ↓ -22.7% | +6.2 pp | Mild Value |
🔥 Top market moves
The biggest market moves and sportsbook repricing detected in this window.
| Match | Side | Move | Signal | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antequera vs Real Jaén | Real Jaén | ↑ +37.5% | 📉 Strong drift | 7/7 | Steam Score: 74 A |
| Real Madrid II vs Alcorcon | Alcorcon | ↑ +16.1% | 📉 Strong drift | 7/9 | Steam Score: 58 B |
| Europa Fc vs Rayo Majadahonda | Rayo Majadahonda | ↓ -22.7% | 📈 Steam | 5/9 | Steam Score: 80 A+ |
| Teruel vs Huesca | Teruel | ↓ -10.3% | 📈 Steam | 6/9 | Steam Score: 59 B |
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| Match(4) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europa Fc vs Rayo Majadahonda Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Sun 14:00 | Rayo Majadahonda | 3.75 |
2.9
kickoff in 10m |
↓ -22.7%
3.75
2.9
🐢 Slow drift over 105h 40m 4.00 → 2.88 → 2.90 |
📈 Steam | Bet365 |
5/9
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -22.7%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -22.5%
Marathonbet
↓ -22.1%
1xBet
↓ -22.0%
Betano
↓ -19.5%
|
Steam Score:
80
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +17/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
Closing-window persistence: +2/8
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Largest underdog steam | Sharp repricing | P30: 3.36 | Multi-book steam on Rayo Majadahonda (22.7%, 5/9) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip. |
| Antequera vs Real Jaén Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Sun 16:15 | Real Jaén | 2.4 |
3.3
kickoff in 2h 25m |
↑ +37.5%
2.4
3.3
🐢 Slow drift over 104h 42m 3.60 → 2.34 → 3.30 |
📉 Strong drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
7/7
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +50.0%
1xBet
↑ +45.3%
Betano
↑ +42.9%
Marathonbet
↑ +41.9%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +37.5%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +19.4%
William Hill
↑ +13.8%
|
Steam Score:
74
A
Strong sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -15
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest move today | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 7/7 books lengthened Real Jaén together (37.5% drift, score 74) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Teruel vs Huesca Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Sun 17:00 | Teruel | 3.9 |
3.5
kickoff in 3h 10m |
↓ -10.3%
3.9
3.5
🐢 Slow drift over 108h 40m 4.31 → 3.43 → 3.50 |
📈 Steam | Bet365 |
6/9
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -10.3%
Marathonbet
↓ -9.6%
1xBet
↓ -9.2%
BetVictor
↓ -8.5%
Betano
↓ -7.5%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -7.5%
|
Steam Score:
59
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +23/45
Book synchronization: +20/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Multi-book steam on Teruel (10.3%, 6/9) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip. |
| Real Madrid II vs Alcorcon Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Sun 18:30 | Alcorcon | 3.1 |
3.6
kickoff in 4h 40m |
↑ +16.1%
3.1
3.6
🐢 Slow drift over 108h 40m 3.90 → 2.92 → 3.60 |
📉 Strong drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
7/9
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +30.0%
Betano
↑ +23.3%
Marathonbet
↑ +21.2%
1xBet
↑ +21.1%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +16.1%
William Hill
↑ +5.9%
SBO Sharp
↑ +2.2%
|
Steam Score:
58
B
Moderate sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +35/45
Book synchronization: +23/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -15
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 7/9 books lengthened Alcorcon together (16.1% drift, score 58) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |