Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 / Teruel vs Huesca

Prediction Audit: Teruel vs Huesca Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Teruel Teruel
Sep 27, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.24
1 1.36
xG Accuracy: 85%
Huesca Huesca

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Huesca at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Huesca Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Teruel considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Teruel +9.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Teruel 32.4% 23.1% +9.3 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 32.8% -3.2 pp Aligned
Huesca 38.0% 44.0% -6.0 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Teruel's win probability at 32.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.1%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Teruel.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Huesca; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Huesca by 9.3 percentage points (28.7% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Teruel 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Huesca 38.0%
    • xG · Teruel 1.24 — Huesca 1.36
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Teruel 3.96 · Draw 2.79 · Huesca 2.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Teruel 23.1% · Draw 32.8% · Huesca 44.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Teruel 3.96 · Draw 2.79 · Huesca 2.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Teruel 23.1% · Draw 32.8% · Huesca 44.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 53/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10107975

Closing Odds 3.96
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Teruel 1–1 Huesca
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: Teruel vs Huesca
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Teruel 1.24 — Huesca 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 42.9% · Probability edge: +11.5 pts · Est. EV: +22.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Villarreal II 5 4 1 0 13
2 Zaragoza 5 4 0 1 12
3 Real Jaén 4 3 1 0 10
4 Real Murcia 4 3 0 1 9
5 Hércules 5 3 0 2 9
6 Atlético Madrid II 5 2 2 1 8
7 Gimnastic 5 2 1 2 7
8 Sant Andreu 5 2 1 2 7
9 Alcorcon 4 1 3 0 6
10 Ibiza 5 2 0 3 6
11 FC Cartagena 4 1 2 1 5
12 Real Madrid II 4 1 2 1 5
13 Antequera 4 1 2 1 5
14 Águilas 5 1 2 2 5
15 Huesca 4 1 2 1 5
16 Rayo Majadahonda 4 1 1 2 4
17 Algeciras 5 1 1 3 4
18 Juventud Torremolinos 5 0 1 4 1
19 Europa Fc 4 0 1 3 1
20 Teruel 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Villarreal II 5 12 5 +7 13
2 Atlético Madrid II 5 9 5 +4 8
3 Real Jaén 4 8 3 +5 10
4 Zaragoza 5 8 5 +3 12
5 Real Murcia 4 8 6 +2 9
6 Gimnastic 5 7 7 0 7
7 Ibiza 5 7 8 -1 6
8 Algeciras 5 7 11 -4 4
9 Alcorcon 4 6 3 +3 6
10 Antequera 4 6 6 0 5
11 Juventud Torremolinos 5 6 11 -5 1
12 Hércules 5 5 5 0 9
13 Sant Andreu 5 5 5 0 7
14 Rayo Majadahonda 4 5 5 0 4
15 FC Cartagena 4 4 3 +1 5
16 Águilas 5 4 6 -2 5
17 Real Madrid II 4 3 2 +1 5
18 Huesca 4 3 5 -2 5
19 Europa Fc 4 2 7 -5 1
20 Teruel 4 0 7 -7 1
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions