Prediction Audit: Real Madrid II vs Alcorcon Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Real Madrid II

Sep 27, 2026 - 18:30

1 1.36

2 1.24

xG Accuracy: 74%

Alcorcon

The model missed the final outcome (Alcorcon win 1–2).

The model had projected Real Madrid II at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Real Madrid II Alcorcon ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Real Madrid II	38.0%	46.7%	-8.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	28.9%	+0.7 pp	Aligned
Alcorcon	32.4%	24.4%	+8.0 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Real Madrid II's win probability at 46.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 8.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Alcorcon win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Real Madrid II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
1X2: model leaned Real Madrid II; match finished Alcorcon

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Real Madrid II by 8.7 percentage points (46.7% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 27, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Real Madrid II 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Alcorcon 32.4%
- xG · Real Madrid II 1.36 — Alcorcon 1.24
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Real Madrid II 1.96 · Draw 3.17 · Alcorcon 3.75
- Implied 1X2 · Real Madrid II 46.7% · Draw 28.9% · Alcorcon 24.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Real Madrid II 1.96 · Draw 3.17 · Alcorcon 3.75
- Implied 1X2 · Real Madrid II 46.7% · Draw 28.9% · Alcorcon 24.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Alcorcon win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 56/100

Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10144841

Closing Odds 1.96

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Alcorcon win · Real Madrid II 1–2 Alcorcon

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Fixture: Real Madrid II vs Alcorcon
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Real Madrid II 1.36 — Alcorcon 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Villarreal II	5	4	1	0	13
2	Zaragoza	5	4	0	1	12
3	Real Jaén	4	3	1	0	10
4	Real Murcia	4	3	0	1	9
5	Hércules	5	3	0	2	9
6	Atlético Madrid II	5	2	2	1	8
7	Gimnastic	5	2	1	2	7
8	Sant Andreu	5	2	1	2	7
9	Alcorcon	4	1	3	0	6
10	Ibiza	5	2	0	3	6
11	FC Cartagena	4	1	2	1	5
12	Real Madrid II	4	1	2	1	5
13	Antequera	4	1	2	1	5
14	Águilas	5	1	2	2	5
15	Huesca	4	1	2	1	5
16	Rayo Majadahonda	4	1	1	2	4
17	Algeciras	5	1	1	3	4
18	Juventud Torremolinos	5	0	1	4	1
19	Europa Fc	4	0	1	3	1
20	Teruel	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Villarreal II	5	12	5	+7	13
2	Atlético Madrid II	5	9	5	+4	8
3	Real Jaén	4	8	3	+5	10
4	Zaragoza	5	8	5	+3	12
5	Real Murcia	4	8	6	+2	9
6	Gimnastic	5	7	7	0	7
7	Ibiza	5	7	8	-1	6
8	Algeciras	5	7	11	-4	4
9	Alcorcon	4	6	3	+3	6
10	Antequera	4	6	6	0	5
11	Juventud Torremolinos	5	6	11	-5	1
12	Hércules	5	5	5	0	9
13	Sant Andreu	5	5	5	0	7
14	Rayo Majadahonda	4	5	5	0	4
15	FC Cartagena	4	4	3	+1	5
16	Águilas	5	4	6	-2	5
17	Real Madrid II	4	3	2	+1	5
18	Huesca	4	3	5	-2	5
19	Europa Fc	4	2	7	-5	1
20	Teruel	4	0	7	-7	1