Montpellier vs Clermont Foot 予想・オッズ・AIベッティングヒント

Montpellier

May 02, 2026 - 18:00

1.25

0.87

43% 32% 24%

Clermont Foot

メイン推奨（最高+EV）

アンダー 2.5 — 価値

EV 24.9% モデル 64.4%

二次 (バランスのとれた価値): BTTS いいえ (EV 10.4%) — 56.9% モデル

プライマリよりも EV が低くなりますが、モデル確率が高くなります (表示されている場合はより「安定」しています)。

両チーム得点最良の価値（+EV）

はい 43.1% · いいえ 56.9%

EV はい -19.4% · EV番号 10.39%

価値の読み: BTTS いいえ

1X2 傾向

Montpellier · モデル 43.5%

暗黙の 54.7%

EV: -16.6%

1X2の最良EV 0.2%

コレクトスコアの要点穴 / エンジョイ

最も可能性が高い

1-0

確率 15.0%

最もお得な選び

0-0 @13.0 (+56% EV)

Marathonbet

スコアは分散が大きいため、娯楽としての極小額のみを想定しています。

賭けの決定 (モデルと市場の EV)

価値ある機会 — 少なくとも 1 つの市場が、現在の最良の小数オッズで推定 +EV を示しています (しきい値: 2.0%)。

判断の強さ: 6.0 / 10

プライマリラインの識別 (+1.0)
プライマリー EV が 10% 以上 (+1.0)
最大 1X2 確率が 50% 未満 (支配的な 1X2 なし) (−1.0)
抽選確率 30% 以上 (-0.5)
しきい値 (+0.5) で 2 つ以上の有効な +EV ライン

O/U 2.5: EVオーバー -29.51% · EVアンダー 24.94% (10 本のペア)
防弾少年団: EV はい -19.4% · EV番号 10.39%

Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

これの使い方

実用的なアイデアが 1 つ必要な場合は、Primary 行に焦点を当てます。
多数の薄いエッジのピックを一緒に使用しないでください。エッジが確実に追加されません。
ロングショットはオプションの、一か八かのプレイのみとして扱います。

OddsGPT 意思決定エンジン v2.0.0(EV + 市場構造 + リスク調整) オッズを確認する 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Ligue 2
Fixture: Montpellier vs Clermont Foot
Kickoff: 2026-05-02 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.5% · Draw 32.5% · Away 24.1%
xG (showing): Montpellier 1.25 — Clermont Foot 0.87 (total xG ≈ 2.12)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 64.4% · Implied: 50.5% · Probability edge: +13.9 pts · Est. EV: +24.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 43.1% · No 56.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary pick from the decision engine: Under 2.5 goals.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

When several markets sit near +EV, keep stakes small — correlation means edges do not add cleanly.

FAQ

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Narrative: Template sentence library with fixture-stable selection (no per-request LLM for this block).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 2 — 順位表

#	チーム	試	勝	分	敗	点
1	Estac Troyes	32	19	7	6	64
2	Le Mans	32	15	13	4	58
3	Saint Etienne	32	17	6	9	57
4	RED Star FC 93	32	15	9	8	54
5	Reims	32	13	13	6	52
6	Rodez	32	13	13	6	52
7	Montpellier	32	14	8	10	50
8	Annecy	32	14	7	11	49
9	PAU	32	12	9	11	45
10	Dunkerque	31	10	10	11	40
11	Guingamp	32	10	10	12	40
12	Boulogne	31	9	9	13	36
13	Grenoble	32	6	15	11	33
14	Clermont Foot	32	7	10	15	31
15	Nancy	32	7	10	15	31
16	Laval	32	5	14	13	29
17	Bastia	32	4	13	15	25
18	Amiens	32	6	6	20	24

#	チーム	試	得	失	+/-	点
1	Estac Troyes	32	56	32	+24	64
2	Saint Etienne	32	53	36	+17	57
3	Le Mans	32	47	30	+17	58
4	Reims	32	47	31	+16	52
5	Annecy	32	46	36	+10	49
6	Dunkerque	31	45	39	+6	40
7	PAU	32	44	54	-10	45
8	Guingamp	32	42	47	-5	40
9	RED Star FC 93	32	41	35	+6	54
10	Rodez	32	41	37	+4	52
11	Montpellier	32	39	28	+11	50
12	Amiens	32	36	57	-21	24
13	Clermont Foot	32	35	43	-8	31
14	Grenoble	32	31	39	-8	33
15	Boulogne	31	30	39	-9	36
16	Nancy	32	29	49	-20	31
17	Laval	32	28	43	-15	29
18	Bastia	32	22	37	-15	25

#	チーム	試	xG	xGC	+/-	点
1	Estac Troyes	32	24.9	17.8	+7.1	64
2	PAU	32	24.1	17.0	+7.1	45
3	Reims	32	21.9	15.1	+6.8	52
4	Saint Etienne	32	22.9	18.3	+4.6	57
5	Le Mans	32	20.8	17.6	+3.2	58
6	Dunkerque	31	20.2	17.3	+2.9	40
7	Guingamp	32	21.2	19.1	+2.1	40
8	Boulogne	31	20.0	17.9	+2.1	36
9	Annecy	32	17.4	15.3	+2.1	49
10	RED Star FC 93	32	18.4	16.8	+1.6	54
11	Montpellier	32	21.5	20.0	+1.5	50
12	Nancy	32	19.7	20.1	-0.4	31
13	Bastia	32	16.6	18.1	-1.5	25
14	Grenoble	32	18.9	23.3	-4.4	33
15	Laval	32	14.8	19.7	-4.9	29
16	Rodez	32	20.2	27.6	-7.4	52
17	Clermont Foot	32	16.0	26.0	-10.0	31
18	Amiens	32	14.8	27.2	-12.4	24