Today's Summary
8
Significant Movements
Avg Move
27.8%
Market Movement - World - Friendlies
Track real-time closing odds movement across major football sportsbooks. Compare opening lines, current market prices, steam moves, and sharp betting activity to identify potential Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunities.
Today's Market Analysis
- 8 fixtures saw meaningful repricing today (avg 27.8% move).
- Strongest steam: Faroe Islands U19 vs Slovenia U19 (66.7%, 6 books).
- 4 fixtures showed broad consensus.
- No closing-line validation is yet available for today's open fixtures.
Today's Market Health
★★★★
☆
Healthy market
High liquidity · Strong consensus · Weak CLV history
Market Metrics
-
Steam Activity 7 moves > thresholdHigh
-
Bookmaker Consensus 4 broad repricing eventsLow
-
Market Trend 38% shortening · 62% lengtheningLow
-
CLV Context 0 fixtures with CLV dataPending
Top Movers
- 1 ↑ +66.7%
- 2 ↑ +34.0%
- 3 ↑ +33.3%
Biggest Steam
-
Faroe Islands U19 vs Slovenia U19 ↑ +66.7% Steam 84
-
2
Slovakia U19 vs Switzerland U19 ↑ +34.0% Steam 84
-
3
Uzbekistan vs Syria ↓ -26.3% Steam 76
Highest Breadth
-
1
Faroe Islands U19 vs Slovenia U19 ↑ +66.7% 6/6
-
2
Slovakia U19 vs Switzerland U19 ↑ +34.0% 6/6
-
3
Brazil U20 vs United States U20 ↓ -5.7% 5/5
Most Books Agree
-
1
Maldives vs Lebanon ↑ +22.2%
-
2
Uzbekistan vs Syria ↓ -26.3%
-
3
Faroe Islands U19 vs Slovenia U19 ↑ +66.7%
Fastest Odds Change
-
1
Faroe Islands U19 vs Slovenia U19 ↑ +66.7%
-
2
Croatia U19 vs Italy U19 ↓ -8.9%
-
3
Slovakia U19 vs Switzerland U19 ↑ +34.0%
League Intelligence (30 days)
1
Matches Tracked
37.0
Avg Steam
6.2%
Avg Move
6.2%
Biggest Move
Friendlies (World) markets are monitored for opening odds, steam repricing, and closing-line movement across major sportsbooks. Friendlies and exhibition matches usually produce more volatile pricing than domestic league games because squad rotation and unknown lineups create uncertainty. When sufficient pricing data is available, OddsGPT tracks breadth, steam score, and CLV validation for each fixture.Over the last 30 days, average steam score reached 37.0 while bookmaker consensus averaged 75% breadth.
Over the past 30 days, World - Friendlies has produced quiet repricing patterns with an average Steam Score of 37.0. Typical line moves averaged 6.2% and the largest swing reached 6.2%. Insufficient settled fixtures for a reliable 30-day CLV read. Home-side steam represented —% of tracked signals; favourites drew —% of steam-backed moves.
📊 Top Edge Today
Largest fair-vs-market gaps before kickoff — AI value side vs where money is flowing.
| Match | AI Edge | Market Move | Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maldives vs Lebanon | Lebanon | Draw ↑ +22.2% | -50.8 pp | Data Integrity Review Required |
| Faroe Islands U19 vs Slovenia U19 | Slovenia U19 | Faroe Islands U19 ↑ +66.7% | -42.0 pp | Model Breakdown Risk |
| France U19 vs Turkey U19 | France U19 | Turkey U19 ↑ +33.3% | -40.2 pp | Model Breakdown Risk |
| Uzbekistan vs Syria | Uzbekistan | Syria ↓ -26.3% | -27.4 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
| Brazil U20 vs United States U20 | Brazil U20 | United States U20 ↓ -5.7% | -18.9 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
| Poland U19 vs Kazakhstan U19 | Poland U19 | Kazakhstan U19 ↑ +25.0% | -17.6 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
| Slovakia U19 vs Switzerland U19 | Switzerland U19 | Slovakia U19 ↑ +34.0% | -8.1 pp | Market Ahead |
| Croatia U19 vs Italy U19 | Italy U19 | Italy U19 ↓ -8.9% | -7.0 pp | Market Ahead |
🔥 Top market moves
The biggest market moves and sportsbook repricing detected in this window.
| Match | Side | Move | Signal | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faroe Islands U19 vs Slovenia U19 | Faroe Islands U19 | ↑ +66.7% | 📉 Strong drift | 6/6 | Steam Score: 84 A+ |
| Slovakia U19 vs Switzerland U19 | Slovakia U19 | ↑ +34.0% | 📉 Strong drift | 6/6 | Steam Score: 84 A+ |
| Uzbekistan vs Syria | Syria | ↓ -26.3% | 📈 Steam | 4/7 | Steam Score: 76 A+ |
| Maldives vs Lebanon | Draw | ↑ +22.2% | ↘ Drift | 4/8 | Steam Score: 66 A |
| France U19 vs Turkey U19 | Turkey U19 | ↑ +33.3% | ⚡ Sharp-led move | 2/6 | Steam Score: 60 A |
Filters apply to the match list below — highlights above stay unchanged.
Signal
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| Match(8) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faroe Islands U19 vs Slovenia U19 Friendlies · Thu 14:00 | Faroe Islands U19 | 9.0 |
15.0
kickoff in 5h 39m |
↑ +66.7%
9.0
15.0
🐢 Slow drift over 25h 53m 23.00 → 9.00 → 15.00 |
📉 Strong drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
6/6
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +76.9%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +66.7%
1xBet
↑ +35.3%
William Hill
↑ +11.8%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +9.8%
Marathonbet
↑ +8.7%
|
Steam Score:
84
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 22% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -5
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
Largest move today | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 6/6 books lengthened Faroe Islands U19 together (66.7% drift, score 84) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Slovakia U19 vs Switzerland U19 Friendlies · Thu 09:30 | Slovakia U19 | 2.15 |
2.88
kickoff in 69m |
↑ +34.0%
2.15
2.88
🐢 Slow drift over 25h 53m 3.60 → 2.15 → 2.88 |
📉 Strong drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
6/6
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +44.9%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +34.0%
1xBet
↑ +29.0%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +28.0%
William Hill
↑ +26.5%
Marathonbet
↑ +26.1%
|
Steam Score:
84
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 22% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -5
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
Highest consensus move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 6/6 books lengthened Slovakia U19 together (34.0% drift, score 84) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Uzbekistan vs Syria Friendlies · Thu 14:00 | Syria | 9.5 |
7.0
kickoff in 5h 39m |
↓ -26.3%
9.5
7.0
🐢 Slow drift over 27h 56m 10.20 → 7.00 → 7.00 |
📈 Steam | Bet365 |
4/7
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -26.3%
Betano
↓ -9.4%
Marathonbet
↓ -6.4%
Pinnacle Sharp
↓ -3.0%
|
Steam Score:
76
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 22% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +17/30
Books reacting: +8/10
Signal conviction: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
Largest underdog steam | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Multi-book steam on Syria (26.3%, 4/7) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip. |
| Maldives vs Lebanon Friendlies · Thu 14:00 | Draw | 9.0 |
11.0
since pub · 19h 55m |
↑ +22.2%
9.0
11.0
🐢 Slow drift over 19h 55m 15.50 → 7.24 → 11.00 |
↘ Drift | Bet365 |
4/8
Books moving same direction
Marathonbet
↑ +32.9%
1xBet
↑ +24.0%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +22.2%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +18.2%
|
Steam Score:
66
A
Strong sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 22% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +15/30
Books reacting: +8/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Draw (22.2%, 4/8) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| France U19 vs Turkey U19 Friendlies · Thu 10:45 | Turkey U19 | 9.0 |
12.0
kickoff in 2h 24m |
↑ +33.3%
9.0
12.0
🐢 Slow drift over 25h 53m 21.00 → 9.00 → 12.00 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
2/6
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +33.3%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +6.7%
|
Steam Score:
60
A
Strong sharp signal
Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 22% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +10/30
Books reacting: +4/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on Turkey U19 (33.3%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Poland U19 vs Kazakhstan U19 Friendlies · Thu 09:30 | Kazakhstan U19 | 4.0 |
5.0
kickoff in 69m |
↑ +25.0%
4.0
5.0
🐢 Slow drift over 25h 53m 6.05 → 4.00 → 5.00 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
2/6
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +25.0%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +8.0%
|
Steam Score:
60
A
Strong sharp signal
Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 22% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +10/30
Books reacting: +4/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on Kazakhstan U19 (25.0%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Brazil U20 vs United States U20 Friendlies · Thu 16:00 | United States U20 | 3.5 |
3.3
since pub · 21h 44m |
↓ -5.7%
3.5
3.3
🐢 Slow drift over 21h 44m 3.78 → 2.93 → 3.30 |
⚡ Sharp-led move |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
5/5
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↓ -8.3%
1xBet
↓ -8.2%
Marathonbet
↓ -7.9%
Pinnacle Sharp
↓ -7.6%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -5.7%
|
Steam Score:
54
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 22% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +12/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Betfair led repricing on United States U20 (5.7%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Croatia U19 vs Italy U19 Friendlies · Thu 13:30 | Italy U19 | 2.25 |
2.05
since pub · 5h 54m |
↓ -8.9%
2.25
2.05
↔ Gradual move over 5h 54m 2.25 → 2.03 → 2.05 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
1/6
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -8.9%
|
Steam Score:
28
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 22% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +20/45
Book synchronization: +5/30
Books reacting: +2/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Fastest repricing | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on Italy U19 (8.9%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
