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Market Movement - World - Friendlies

Predictions

Finished matches: the 1X2 side with the largest opening→closing odds move.

Last updated: Live Next refresh: Time window: today Total fixtures: 8

Today's Summary

7 Significant Movements
Avg Move 42.3%

Today's Market Analysis

  • 7 fixtures saw meaningful repricing today (avg 42.3% move).
  • Strongest steam: Uzbekistan vs Syria (27.9%, 8 books).
  • 3 fixtures showed broad consensus.
  • 8 finished matches already carry closing-line validation.

Today's Market Health

★★★★ ☆
Healthy market

High liquidity · Strong consensus · Reliable closing data

Market Metrics

  • Steam Activity 6 moves > threshold
    High
  • Bookmaker Consensus 3 broad repricing events
    Low
  • Market Trend 50% shortening · 50% lengthening
    Low
  • CLV Context 8 fixtures with CLV data
    Active

Top Movers

  1. 1
    Faroe Islands U19 vs Slovenia U19
    ↑ +137.4%
  2. 2
    Slovakia U19 vs Switzerland U19
    ↑ +46.5%
  3. 3
    France U19 vs Turkey U19
    ↑ +40.4%

Biggest Steam

  1. Uzbekistan vs Syria ↓ -27.9% Steam 99
  2. 2
    Slovakia U19 vs Switzerland U19 ↑ +46.5% Steam 84
  3. 3
    Faroe Islands U19 vs Slovenia U19 ↑ +137.4% Steam 84

Highest Breadth

  1. 1
    Uzbekistan vs Syria ↓ -27.9% 8/8
  2. 2
    Slovakia U19 vs Switzerland U19 ↑ +46.5% 7/7
  3. 3
    Faroe Islands U19 vs Slovenia U19 ↑ +137.4% 7/7

Most CLV Edge

  1. 1
    Maldives vs Lebanon +61.8%
  2. 2
    Faroe Islands U19 vs Slovenia U19 -57.9%
  3. 3
    Uzbekistan vs Syria +38.7%

Most Books Agree

  1. 1
    Maldives vs Lebanon ↓ -38.2%
  2. 2
    Argentina vs Bolivia ↓ -11.4%
  3. 3
    Uzbekistan vs Syria ↓ -27.9%

Fastest Odds Change

  1. 1
    Faroe Islands U19 vs Slovenia U19 ↑ +137.4%
  2. 2
    Slovakia U19 vs Switzerland U19 ↑ +46.5%
  3. 3
    France U19 vs Turkey U19 ↑ +40.4%

League Intelligence (30 days)

3 Matches Tracked
45.3 Avg Steam
7.8% Avg Move
17.1% Biggest Move
0.0% Home Steam %
0.0% Fav Steam %

Friendlies (World) markets are monitored for opening odds, steam repricing, and closing-line movement across major sportsbooks. Friendlies and exhibition matches usually produce more volatile pricing than domestic league games because squad rotation and unknown lineups create uncertainty. When sufficient pricing data is available, OddsGPT tracks breadth, steam score, and CLV validation for each fixture.Over the last 30 days, average steam score reached 45.3 while bookmaker consensus averaged 83% breadth, with 1 steam-backed repricing events.

Over the past 30 days, World - Friendlies has produced moderate steam activity with an average Steam Score of 45.3. Typical line moves averaged 7.8% and the largest swing reached 17.1%. Historical closing-line validation has remained balanced (0% positive). Home-side steam represented 0.0% of tracked signals; favourites drew 0.0% of steam-backed moves.

Live Market Moves Early Sharp Moves Final Closing Moves Move Review
Each row tracks the 1X2 side with the largest opening→closing odds move. CLV compares that side's opening line to the captured closing line; Replay ROI is a flat 1-unit backtest on that side only — for market-behavior review, not strategy performance.

Market Reality Check

Does the largest opening→closing move survive to the close? Flat 1-unit replay — market behavior review, not a betting strategy.

Basic match replay is free. Steam breakdown, book consensus, and historical similar-move stats require login.

8
Matches reviewed
50.0%
Largest move held to close
12.5%
Tracked side won
0.0%
Held & won
-73.1%
Replay ROI
This scope All markets today: 30 matches · 43.3% held · Replay ROI -69.2%

Large market moves are common, but most do not survive to the closing line and have not been profitable in this sample.

Historical pattern performance

Steam Score 85+
— samples
Held to close: 71%
Won: —%
Replay ROI: —
A+ Sharp repricing
— samples
Held to close: 64%
Won: —%
Replay ROI: —
Sharp-led moves
— samples
Held to close: 22%
Won: —%
Replay ROI: —
Market move replay
Match(8) Largest-move side? Home, draw, or away with the biggest opening→closing odds change — a descriptive label, not a bet signal. Home, draw, or away with the biggest opening→closing odds change — a descriptive label, not a bet signal. Opening Closing CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Held to close Outcome Score Market depth
Maldives vs Lebanon Friendlies · Thu 14:00 Maldives 34.0 21.02 +61.8% ✓ Held L 0-6
Steam Score 67 A
Market Breadth 4/9
Sharp-led move Pinnacle
P1: 21.02 · P5: 21.02 · P10: 21.02 · P30: 21.02
Uzbekistan vs Syria Friendlies · Thu 14:00 Syria 9.5 6.85 +38.7% ✓ Held L 4-1
Steam Score 99 A+
Market Breadth 8/8
Sharp-led move Bet365
P1: 6.85 · P5: 6.85 · P10: 6.85 · P30: 6.85
Argentina vs Bolivia Friendlies · Thu 00:00 Bolivia 26.0 23.03 +12.9% ✓ Held L 4-0
Steam Score 37 C
Market Breadth 2/9
Sharp-led move Betfair
P1: 23.03 · P5: 23.03 · P10: 23.03 · P30: 23.03
Croatia U19 vs Italy U19 Friendlies · Thu 13:30 Draw 3.4 3.37 +0.9% ✓ Held L 0-1
Steam Score 10 C
Market Breadth 2/8
Sharp-led move SBO
P1: 3.37 · P5: 3.37 · P10: 3.30 · P30: 3.30
Poland U19 vs Kazakhstan U19 Friendlies · Thu 09:30 Kazakhstan U19 4.0 5.44 -26.5% ✗ Reversed L 3-0
Steam Score 65 A
Market Breadth 3/7
Sharp-led move Bet365
P1: 5.44 · P5: 5.44 · P10: 5.44 · P30: 5.44
France U19 vs Turkey U19 Friendlies · Thu 10:45 Turkey U19 9.0 12.64 -28.8% ✗ Reversed L 2-1
Steam Score 63 A
Market Breadth 3/8
Sharp-led move Bet365
P1: 12.64 · P5: 12.64 · P10: 12.64 · P30: 12.63
Slovakia U19 vs Switzerland U19 Friendlies · Thu 09:30 Slovakia U19 2.15 3.15 -31.7% ✗ Reversed W 2-1
Steam Score 84 A+
Market Breadth 7/7
Sharp-led move Bet365
P1: 3.15 · P5: 3.15 · P10: 3.15 · P30: 3.15
Faroe Islands U19 vs Slovenia U19 Friendlies · Thu 14:00 Faroe Islands U19 9.0 21.37 -57.9% ✗ Reversed L 1-2
Steam Score 84 A+
Market Breadth 7/7
Sharp-led move Betfair
P1: 21.37 · P5: 21.37 · P10: 21.37 · P30: 21.37