Today's Summary
3
Significant Movements
Avg Move
4.2%
Market Movement - World - Friendlies
Track real-time closing odds movement across major football sportsbooks. Compare opening lines, current market prices, steam moves, and sharp betting activity to identify potential Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunities.
Today's Market Analysis
- 3 fixtures saw meaningful repricing today (avg 4.2% move).
- Strongest steam: Seychelles vs Sri Lanka (14.8%, 7 books).
- 8 fixtures showed broad consensus.
- 1 finished matches already carry closing-line validation.
Today's Market Health
★★★★
☆
Healthy market
High liquidity · Strong consensus · Reliable closing data · Volatile repricing
Market Metrics
-
Steam Activity 3 moves > thresholdModerate
-
Bookmaker Consensus 8 broad repricing eventsModerate
-
Market Trend 0% shortening · 44% lengtheningModerate
-
CLV Context 1 fixtures with CLV dataActive
Top Movers
- 1 ↑ +14.8%
- 2 ↑ +10.8%
- 3 ↑ +10.0%
Biggest Steam
-
Seychelles vs Sri Lanka ↑ +14.8% Steam 66
-
2
Lithuania vs Andorra ↑ +10.0% Steam 56
-
3
Fiji vs New Caledonia ↑ +10.8% Steam 53
Highest Breadth
-
1
Seychelles vs Sri Lanka ↑ +14.8% 6/7
-
2
Lithuania vs Andorra ↑ +10.0% 6/7
-
3
Fiji vs New Caledonia ↑ +10.8% 5/7
Most Books Agree
-
1
Seychelles vs Sri Lanka ↑ +14.8%
-
2
Lithuania vs Andorra ↑ +10.0%
-
3
Fiji vs New Caledonia ↑ +10.8%
Fastest Odds Change
-
1
Seychelles vs Sri Lanka ↑ +14.8%
-
2
Fiji vs New Caledonia ↑ +10.8%
-
3
Lithuania vs Andorra ↑ +10.0%
League Intelligence (30 days)
1
Matches Tracked
53.0
Avg Steam
10.8%
Avg Move
10.8%
Biggest Move
0.0%
Home Steam %
0.0%
Fav Steam %
Friendlies (World) markets are monitored for opening odds, steam repricing, and closing-line movement across major sportsbooks. Friendlies and exhibition matches usually produce more volatile pricing than domestic league games because squad rotation and unknown lineups create uncertainty. When sufficient pricing data is available, OddsGPT tracks breadth, steam score, and CLV validation for each fixture.Over the last 30 days, average steam score reached 53.0 while bookmaker consensus averaged 71% breadth, with 1 steam-backed repricing events.
Over the past 30 days, World - Friendlies has produced moderate steam activity with an average Steam Score of 53.0. Typical line moves averaged 10.8% and the largest swing reached 10.8%. Historical closing-line validation has remained balanced (0% positive). Home-side steam represented 0.0% of tracked signals; favourites drew 0.0% of steam-backed moves.
📊 Top Edge Today
Largest fair-vs-market gaps before kickoff — AI value side vs where money is flowing.
| Match | AI Edge | Market Move | Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania vs Andorra | Lithuania | Andorra ↑ +10.0% | -21.5 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
| Fiji vs New Caledonia | Fiji | New Caledonia ↑ +10.8% | -21.2 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
| Seychelles vs Sri Lanka | Sri Lanka | Seychelles ↑ +14.8% | -13.1 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
| Mauritius vs Djibouti | Mauritius | Mauritius ↑ +2.4% | -10.0 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
🔥 Top market moves
The biggest market moves and sportsbook repricing detected in this window.
| Match | Side | Move | Signal | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seychelles vs Sri Lanka | Seychelles | ↑ +14.8% | ↘ Drift | 6/7 | Steam Score: 66 A |
| Lithuania vs Andorra | Andorra | ↑ +10.0% | ↘ Drift | 6/7 | Steam Score: 56 B |
| Fiji vs New Caledonia | New Caledonia | ↑ +10.8% | ↘ Drift | 5/7 | Steam Score: 53 B |
| Austria U19 vs Denmark U19 | Austria U19 | +0.0% | — Tracking | 5/5 | Steam Score: 40 B |
Filters apply to the match list below — highlights above stay unchanged.
Signal
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| Match(9) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seychelles vs Sri Lanka Friendlies · Wed 12:00 | Seychelles | 2.7 |
3.1
since pub · 15h 16m |
↑ +14.8%
2.7
3.1
🐢 Slow drift over 15h 16m 3.75 → 2.62 → 3.10 |
↘ Drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
6/7
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +30.2%
1xBet
↑ +25.1%
Marathonbet
↑ +22.9%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +14.8%
William Hill
↑ +10.3%
Betano
↑ +4.8%
|
Steam Score:
66
A
Strong sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +33/45
Book synchronization: +26/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest move today | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Seychelles (14.8%, 6/7) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Lithuania vs Andorra Friendlies · Wed 16:00 | Andorra | 5.0 |
5.5
since pub · 19h 26m |
↑ +10.0%
5.0
5.5
🐢 Slow drift over 19h 26m 7.20 → 4.20 → 5.50 |
↘ Drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
6/7
Books moving same direction
William Hill
↑ +31.0%
1xBet
↑ +29.7%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +20.0%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +10.0%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +8.5%
Betano
↑ +5.8%
|
Steam Score:
56
B
Moderate sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +22/45
Book synchronization: +26/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Andorra (10.0%, 6/7) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Fiji vs New Caledonia Friendlies · Wed 07:00 | New Caledonia | 3.7 |
4.1
since pub · 19h 2m |
↑ +10.8%
3.7
4.1
🐢 Slow drift over 19h 2m 4.67 → 3.70 → 4.10 |
↘ Drift | Bet365 |
5/7
Books moving same direction
1xBet
↑ +13.9%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +10.8%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +3.9%
Betano
↑ +3.8%
Marathonbet
↑ +2.4%
|
Steam Score:
53
B
Moderate sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +24/45
Book synchronization: +21/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
Largest closing-window shift | Market drift | P1: 3.99 · P5: 3.99 · P10: 3.99 · P30: 3.99 | Multi-book drift on New Caledonia (10.8%, 5/7) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Austria U19 vs Denmark U19 Friendlies · Wed 12:00 | Austria U19 | 2.7 |
2.7
since pub · <1m |
+0.0%
— Stable line 2.81 → 2.70 → 2.70 |
— Tracking |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
5/5
Books moving same direction
1xBet
+0.0%
Bet365 Sharp
+0.0%
Betfair Sharp
+0.0%
Marathonbet
+0.0%
Pinnacle Sharp
+0.0%
|
Steam Score:
40
B
Moderate sharp signal
Noticeable line movement, though without clear sharp-book leadership. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
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Highest consensus move | Discovery | Waiting for Close | Stable line on Austria U19 — tracking only (0.0% vs. open). |
| Albania U19 vs Lithuania U19 Friendlies · Wed 13:30 | Albania U19 | 2.0 |
2.0
since pub · <1m |
+0.0%
— Stable line 2.00 → 1.82 → 2.00 |
ℹ️ Low-intensity market activity |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle |
4/4
Books moving same direction
1xBet
+0.0%
Bet365 Sharp
+0.0%
Marathonbet
+0.0%
Pinnacle Sharp
+0.0%
|
Steam Score:
28
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +8/10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Net move flat on Albania U19 (0.0%), but intraday swing reached 9.4% — price repriced then reverted. |
| Scotland U19 vs Ukraine U19 Friendlies · Wed 09:00 | Scotland U19 | 2.75 |
2.75
since pub · <1m |
+0.0%
— Stable line 3.10 → 2.75 → 2.75 |
ℹ️ Low-intensity market activity |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle |
5/6
Books moving same direction
1xBet
+0.0%
Bet365 Sharp
+0.0%
Marathonbet
+0.0%
Pinnacle Sharp
+0.0%
William Hill
+0.0%
|
Steam Score:
25
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Book synchronization: +25/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Net move flat on Scotland U19 (0.0%), but intraday swing reached 12.0% — price repriced then reverted. |
| Portugal U19 vs Netherlands U19 Friendlies · Wed 16:30 | Portugal U19 | 2.2 |
2.2
since pub · <1m |
+0.0%
— Stable line 2.20 → 1.97 → 2.20 |
ℹ️ Low-intensity market activity |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle |
4/6
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
+0.0%
Marathonbet
+0.0%
Pinnacle Sharp
+0.0%
William Hill
+0.0%
|
Steam Score:
18
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Book synchronization: +20/30
Books reacting: +8/10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Net move flat on Portugal U19 (0.0%), but intraday swing reached 11.0% — price repriced then reverted. |
| Finland U19 vs Germany U19 Friendlies · Wed 09:15 | Finland U19 | 4.75 |
4.75
since pub · <1m |
+0.0%
— Stable line 6.80 → 4.75 → 4.75 |
ℹ️ Low-intensity market activity | Bet365 |
3/5
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
+0.0%
Marathonbet
+0.0%
William Hill
+0.0%
|
Steam Score:
14
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Book synchronization: +18/30
Books reacting: +6/10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Net move flat on Finland U19 (0.0%), but intraday swing reached 35.5% — price repriced then reverted. |
| Mauritius vs Djibouti Friendlies · Wed 12:00 | Mauritius | 2.07 |
2.12
since pub · 10h 58m |
↑ +2.4%
2.07
2.12
— Stable line 2.12 → 1.31 → 2.12 |
⚠️ Volatile market | 1xBet |
1/3
Books moving same direction
1xBet
↑ +2.4%
|
Steam Score:
7
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +5/45
Book synchronization: +10/30
Books reacting: +2/10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Volatile two-way pricing on Mauritius (swing 2.12 → 1.31 → 2.12) — net 2.4% but intraday chop is elevated. |
