Macva's odds have shortened significantly from 13.0 to 8.5, indicating strong market support. The closing edge of 23.06 percentage points and a model probability of 34.82% suggest value. Main risk: Elo difference slightly favors the home team, Cukaricki.
Szentlőrinc SE's odds have dropped significantly from 6.5 to 5.0, with a strong closing edge of 14.24 percentage points and a model probability of 34.24%. Main risk: Elo difference heavily favors Diosgyori VTK.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
○Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.00
2026-10-07
Candidate pick
@ 5.00
2026-10-08
Update
@ 5.00
2026-10-08
Withdrawn before validation
@ 5.00
2026-10-09
Pass
Ranked 6/102 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 101.3). Main risk: N/A.
Aucas has seen strong steam with odds shortening from 8.0 to 5.75. The closing edge of 10.44 percentage points and a model probability of 27.83% indicate value. Main risk: A significant Elo difference favors Independiente del Valle.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
○Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.75
2026-10-06
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=138.5h, hist_n=100, hist_clv_rate=15%)
2026-10-07
Pass
Ranked 7/42 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 96.71). Main risk: N/A.
2026-10-08
Candidate pick
@ 5.75
2026-10-08
Withdrawn before validation
@ 5.75
2026-10-09
Pass
Ranked 32/102 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 85.94). Main risk: N/A.
The draw in Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu has seen a massive odds drop from 12.5 to 7.9, with a closing edge of 15.9 percentage points and a model probability of 28.56%. Main risk: Draws are inherently less likely and carry higher variance.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
○Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
7.90
2026-10-08
Candidate pick
@ 7.90
2026-10-08
Withdrawn before validation
@ 7.90
2026-10-09
Pass
Ranked 40/102 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 82.0). Main risk: N/A.
Cordoba has a positive historical CLV rate of 52% and a pattern similarity of 60%, indicating a favorable historical trend. The closing edge is positive at 1.02pp, and the market is undergoing sharp repricing, suggesting value in the current odds. Main risk: The xG difference is slightly negative, indicating a marginally weaker recent performance.
