1Cyprus vs Latvia2-1
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Nations League
2026-10-05
BETLatvia Win
6.25
6.50
-0.6pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
4d ago
6.25
→
Closing Line
6.50
CLV vs Closing
-0.6pp
Why
Latvia shows strong market drift with a significant closing edge of 25.68 percentage points. The model probability is substantially higher than the market probability, indicating value. Main risk: Latvia's lower Elo and xG metrics suggest they are underdogs, and the odds drift could reflect genuine market skepticism.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.25
2026-10-05
Candidate pick
@ 6.25
—
Closing
@ 6.50
2Croatia vs Spain1-2
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Nations League
2026-10-05
FADECroatia Win
9.00
—
—
78
🔥
▾
Entry
4d ago
9.00
Why
Croatia's odds have drifted significantly, and while the model probability is higher than the market probability, the Elo and xG differences are notably negative. This suggests Croatia may struggle against Spain. Main risk: The model sees value, but Spain's superior metrics and the drift signal caution.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.00
2026-10-03
Pass
Ranked 65/189 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.9). Main risk: N/A.
Ipswich Town U21 has a strong closing edge of 24.06 percentage points and sharp-led market signals. The model probability is significantly higher than the market probability, suggesting value. Main risk: Ipswich Town U21's lower league quality and breadth percentage could indicate limited market support.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
12.00
2026-10-05
Candidate pick
@ 12.00
2026-10-05
Withdrawn before validation
@ 12.00
2026-10-06
Pass
Ranked 25/103 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.47). Main risk: N/A.
1Guadeloupe vs St. Lucia0-1
✗ Incorrect
CONCACAF Nations League
2026-10-05
BETGuadeloupe Win
3.20
—
—
85
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
4d ago
3.20
Why
Guadeloupe has experienced strong market steam with a significant odds drop from 4.75 to 3.2, indicating sharp action. The closing edge is positive at 9.17 percentage points, and the model probability of 40.42% exceeds the market probability of 31.25%. Main risk: Guadeloupe's slight edge in Elo and xG is not overwhelming, so the market move may be overreacting.
Real Santander has strong steam support with odds moving from 5.25 to 4.33. The model probability (25.79%) is higher than the market probability (23.09%), and there is a positive closing edge of 2.7 percentage points. Main risk: The closing edge is relatively small, and the market signal is not as strong as other options.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
○Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.33
2026-10-03
Pass
Ranked 12/90 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 96.55). Main risk: N/A.
2026-10-04
Pass
Ranked 7/44 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 96.55). Main risk: N/A.
2026-10-05
Candidate pick
@ 4.33
2026-10-05
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.33
2026-10-06
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 4/31, pre-LLM score 96.55). Main risk: N/A.
2026-10-07
Pass
Ranked 8/42 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 96.55). Main risk: N/A.
3Cyprus vs Latvia2-1
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Nations League
2026-10-05
FADELatvia Win
6.25
6.50
-0.6pp
65
🔥
▾
Entry
4d ago
6.25
→
Closing Line
6.50
CLV vs Closing
-0.6pp
Why
Latvia has experienced a significant drift, with odds moving from 4.75 to 6.25. Although the model probability (41.68%) is much higher than the market probability (16%), the negative Elo and xG differentials suggest that the drift may be justified. Main risk: The large market-model gap could indicate value, but the drift suggests caution.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.25
2026-10-05
Candidate pick
@ 6.25
—
Closing
@ 6.50
4Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland1-0
✓ Correct
UEFA Nations League
2026-10-05
FADEBosnia & Herzegovina Win
2.90
3.00
-1.1pp
60
⚡
▾
Entry
4d ago
2.90
→
Closing Line
3.00
CLV vs Closing
-1.1pp
Why
Bosnia & Herzegovina has seen a slight odds drop from 3.3 to 2.9, but the closing edge is negative (-0.29), and the model probability (34.19%) is in line with the market probability (34.48%). Main risk: The market movement could still indicate some sharp interest, but the lack of a positive edge makes this a fade.
