Szentlőrinc SE has strong steam and sharp repricing, with a solid closing edge (14.24 pp). The model probability (34.24%) is significantly higher than the market probability (20.0%), providing value. Main risk: Elo difference (129.5) suggests Diosgyori VTK is a stronger team.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
○Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.00
2026-10-07
Candidate pick
@ 5.00
2026-10-07
Withdrawn before validation
@ 5.00
2026-10-08
Pass
Ranked 7/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 91.7). Main risk: N/A.
2026-10-09
Pass
Ranked 4/252 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 91.7). Main risk: N/A.
Treaty United exhibits strong drift signals and a high closing edge (22.31 pp). The model probability (38.01%) is well above the market probability (15.7%), indicating value. Main risk: Elo difference (-72.7) and xG difference (-0.12) suggest a weaker team overall.
Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.37
2026-10-04
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=137.4h, hist_n=99, hist_clv_rate=15%)
2026-10-05
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=113.4h, hist_n=100, hist_clv_rate=15%)
2026-10-06
Pass
Ranked 11/103 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.9). Main risk: N/A.
1Pazarspor vs Erbaaspor3-1
✓ Correct
Türkiye Kupası
2026-10-07
BETPazarspor Win
3.10
—
—
78
🔥
▾
Entry
2d ago
3.10
Why
Pazarspor has seen a sharp odds drop from 4.4 to 3.1, with strong steam and a closing edge of 4.33 percentage points. The pattern similarity of 32.3% supports the momentum. Main risk: Marginal Elo and xG advantages.
Popayan's odds have dropped sharply from 7.0 to 3.7, but the closing edge is only 2.22 percentage points, and high volatility increases uncertainty. Main risk: Potential overreaction to market movement.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.70
2026-10-01
Pass
Ranked 29/34 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 75.2). Main risk: N/A.
2026-10-02
Pass
Ranked 38/54 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 75.2). Main risk: N/A.
2026-10-03
Pass
Ranked 76/90 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 75.2). Main risk: N/A.
2026-10-04
Pass
Ranked 36/44 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 75.2). Main risk: N/A.
2026-10-05
Pass
Ranked 15/20 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 75.2). Main risk: N/A.
2026-10-06
Pass
Ranked 25/31 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 75.2). Main risk: N/A.
Progreso's odds have dropped from 9.0 to 7.5, with a strong steam signal and a closing edge of 13.31 percentage points. Despite a significant Elo disadvantage, the market move suggests value. Main risk: Penarol's superior Elo and xG metrics.
Tigre Res. has a positive historical CLV rate of 52% in the Reserve League, and the model shows a 5.82pp edge over the market. The match has low volatility, and the historical pattern similarity is strong at 69.4%. Main risk: The elo and xG differences slightly favor the home team, Aldosivi Res.
Instituto Res. shows a positive historical CLV rate of 52% in the Reserve League, with a 6.94pp edge over the market. The match has low volatility, and the historical pattern similarity is solid at 67.1%. Main risk: The xG difference slightly favors the home team, Gimnasia Mendoza 2.
Guangzhou E-Power has a positive historical CLV rate of 52% globally, and the market has moved against Shenzhen Juniors. The match shows a 2.18pp edge for the away side, with low volatility. Main risk: The pattern similarity is moderate at 60%, and the xG difference slightly favors the home team.
