1Claypole vs Canuelas0-2
✗ 錯誤
Primera C
2026-06-30
投注Claypole Win
3.60
2.99
+5.7pp
72
🔥
▾
🚀 強烈價格變動
🚀 強烈價格變動
參賽
90 天前
3.60
→
預期封盤
2.99
預期CLV
+5.7pp
為什麼
Claypole shows strong steam with a steam score of 99 and a significant closing edge of 11.19%. The model probability of 38.97% is notably higher than the market probability of 27.78%. Main risk: The sharp repricing suggests potential overreaction to market movements.
KA Akureyri has a massive closing edge of 21.79% and a model probability of 30.14%, far exceeding the market probability of 8.35%. The sharp-led signal supports value in this long-shot bet. Main risk: Extremely high odds indicate low implied probability, which could reflect true underdog status.
LNZ Cherkasy presents a significant model edge with a closing edge of 27.78% and a model probability of 36.11% compared to the market probability of 8.33%. The market appears to undervalue this side. Main risk: The illiquid market and high odds suggest limited confidence from other bettors.
1Claypole vs Canuelas0-2
✗ 錯誤
Primera C
2026-06-30
投注Claypole Win
3.60
2.99
+5.7pp
85
🔥
▾
🚀 強烈價格變動
🚀 強烈價格變動
參賽
90 天前
3.60
→
預期封盤
2.99
預期CLV
+5.7pp
為什麼
Claypole has strong steam and sharp market repricing with significant closing edge (11.19%). Despite the odds drifting higher, the model probability (38.97%) suggests value compared to market probability (27.78%). Main risk: The odds increase could indicate market skepticism or overreaction.
Brusque shows strong steam with a sharp market move (37.4%) and positive closing edge (7.39%). Model probability (35.17%) exceeds market probability (27.78%), indicating value. Main risk: The xG difference is neutral, suggesting limited underlying team advantage.
已替換為更新的選擇
決策生命周期
✓推荐已生成
✓市场已跟踪
✓已收盘
○ROI 已记录
投注追蹤時間線
候選選擇 @
3.75
2026-06-27
跳過
Ranked 76/84 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 75.2). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-27
跳過
Ranked 7/103 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 103.7). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-28
跳過
Ranked 6/40 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 103.7). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-29
候選選擇
@ 3.75
2026-06-29
已替換為更新的選擇
@ 3.75
2026-06-30
候選選擇
@ 3.60(候選選擇 3.75)
2026-06-30
已替換為更新的選擇
@ 3.60(候選選擇 3.75)
—
結束中
@ 3.27
3Botafogo SP vs CRB0-1
✓ 正確
Serie B
2026-06-30
反向投注CRB Win
3.50
3.48
+0.2pp
65
🔥
▾
參賽
90 天前
3.50
→
預期封盤
3.48
預期CLV
+0.2pp
為什麼
CRB has strong steam, but the closing edge is highly negative (-15.42%), and the model probability (13.15%) is far below market probability (28.57%). Main risk: Overreaction to market steam without fundamental support.
🔥 非常強的資金信號
決策生命周期
✓推荐已生成
✓市场已跟踪
✓已收盘
✓ROI 已记录
投注追蹤時間線
候選選擇 @
3.50
2026-06-27
跳過
Ranked 6/103 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 103.95). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-27
鏡頭篩選器
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=60, breadth=42%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=93.8h)
2026-06-28
候選選擇
@ 3.40
2026-06-28
驗證前已撤回
@ 3.40
2026-06-29
跳過
LLM did not select this match (rank 4/14, pre-LLM score 104.74). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-30
候選選擇
@ 3.50
—
結束中
@ 3.48
4Spain vs Austria3-0
✗ 錯誤
World Cup
2026-06-30
反向投注Austria Win
9.50
12.75
-2.7pp
60
🔥
▾
參賽
90 天前
9.50
→
預期封盤
12.75
預期CLV
-2.7pp
為什麼
Austria's odds have dropped significantly (-44.1%), but the closing edge is negative (-5.38%), and the model probability (5.15%) is below market probability (10.53%). Main risk: Volatility in a high-profile match could lead to unpredictable outcomes.
🔥 非常強的資金信號
決策生命周期
✓推荐已生成
✓市场已跟踪
✓已收盘
✓ROI 已记录
投注追蹤時間線
候選選擇 @
9.50
2026-06-29
跳過
Ranked 11/14 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 88.54). Main risk: N/A.
1Botafogo SP vs CRB0-1
✗ 錯誤
Serie B
2026-06-30
反向投注Valuation disagreementBotafogo SP Win
3.50
2.34
+14.2pp
80
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 主要價格變化
⚠️ 主要價格變化
參賽
90 天前
3.50
→
預期封盤
2.34
預期CLV
+14.2pp
為什麼
CRB has seen strong steam with a significant odds drift from 2.75 to 3.5, indicating market skepticism. The model probability of 13.15% is far below the market's 28.57%, suggesting an overreaction to the steam. Main risk: Botafogo SP's recent form and home advantage could still pose a challenge.
🔥 非常強的資金信號
決策生命周期
✓推荐已生成
✓市场已跟踪
✓已收盘
✓ROI 已记录
投注追蹤時間線
候選選擇 @
3.40
2026-06-27
候選選擇
@ 3.40
2026-06-27
鏡頭篩選器
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=60, breadth=42%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=93.8h)
2026-06-27
已替換為更新的選擇
@ 3.40
2026-06-28
候選選擇
@ 3.40
2026-06-29
更新
@ 3.40
2026-06-30
更新
@ 3.50(候選選擇 3.40)
—
結束中
@ 3.48
2Belgium vs Senegal3-2
✓ 正確
World Cup
2026-06-30
反向投注Valuation disagreementBelgium Win
3.50
2.15
+17.9pp
75
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 主要價格變化
⚠️ 主要價格變化
參賽
90 天前
3.50
→
預期封盤
2.15
預期CLV
+17.9pp
為什麼
Senegal's odds have shortened significantly from 4.0 to 3.5, but the model probability of 7.68% is well below the market's 28.57%. This indicates the market may have overreacted to Senegal's steam. Main risk: Belgium's inconsistency in major tournaments could lead to an upset.
⚡ 穩健的資金信號
決策生命周期
✓推荐已生成
✓市场已跟踪
✓已收盘
✓ROI 已记录
投注追蹤時間線
候選選擇 @
3.50
2026-06-30
候選選擇
@ 3.50
—
結束中
@ 2.15
3Spain vs Austria3-0
✓ 正確
World Cup
2026-06-30
反向投注Valuation disagreementSpain Win
9.50
1.30
+66.4pp
68
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 主要價格變化
⚠️ 主要價格變化
參賽
90 天前
9.50
→
預期封盤
1.30
預期CLV
+66.4pp
為什麼
Austria's odds have dramatically shortened from 17.0 to 9.5, but the model probability of 5.15% is still far below the market's 10.53%. This suggests the market may be overestimating Austria's chances. Main risk: Spain's tendency to underperform against weaker teams in high-pressure situations.
🔥 非常強的資金信號
決策生命周期
✓推荐已生成
✓市场已跟踪
✓已收盘
✓ROI 已记录
投注追蹤時間線
候選選擇 @
9.50
2026-06-29
跳過
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/7, pre-LLM score 62.77). Main risk: N/A.
