Statistics / Football / Serbia. Prva Liga / Dubočica vs OFK Bor 1919

Dubočica vs OFK Bor 1919 Statistics & Analysis

Dubočica Dubočica
Sep 06, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 77%
OFK Bor 1919 OFK Bor 1919
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 OFK Bor 1919 OFK Bor 1919 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6160829

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result OFK Bor 1919 win · Dubočica 1–2 OFK Bor 1919
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), OFK Bor 1919 (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on OFK Bor 1919 (1X2) by about 14.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Dubočica (1X2) 34.2 51.4 -17.1
Draw (1X2) 29.7 27.3 +2.3
OFK Bor 1919 (1X2) 36.1 21.3 +14.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 45.5 +2.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 54.5 -2.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on OFK Bor 1919 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.3%. The difference — about 14.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Dubočica (1X2) 1.75 1.75 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.29 3.29 0.0
OFK Bor 1919 (1X2) 4.22 4.22 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.04 2.04 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.7 1.7 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Prva Liga
  • Fixture: Dubočica vs OFK Bor 1919
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Dubočica 1.28 — OFK Bor 1919 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 47.2% · Probability edge: +7.3 pts · Est. EV: +9.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Prva Liga Prva Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Cacak 8 7 0 1 21
2 TSC Backa Topola 8 5 3 0 18
3 Javor 8 4 3 1 15
4 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 8 4 3 1 15
5 OFK Vršac 8 5 0 3 15
6 Napredak 8 4 1 3 13
7 Semendrija 1924 8 3 3 2 12
8 Dubočica 8 3 1 4 10
9 Metalac GM 8 2 2 4 8
10 FK Vozdovac 8 2 2 4 8
11 Loznica 8 1 5 2 8
12 OFK Bor 1919 8 2 2 4 8
13 Teleoptik 8 1 4 3 7
14 Jedinstvo Ub 8 2 1 5 7
15 Naftagas 8 1 3 4 6
16 Grafičar 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Javor 8 19 8 +11 15
2 TSC Backa Topola 8 17 9 +8 18
3 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 8 17 11 +6 15
4 Borac Cacak 8 15 8 +7 21
5 OFK Vršac 8 13 9 +4 15
6 Semendrija 1924 8 13 11 +2 12
7 Metalac GM 8 11 11 0 8
8 Dubočica 8 10 14 -4 10
9 Teleoptik 8 10 15 -5 7
10 Loznica 8 9 12 -3 8
11 Jedinstvo Ub 8 9 14 -5 7
12 Napredak 8 8 9 -1 13
13 FK Vozdovac 8 8 10 -2 8
14 Grafičar 8 8 17 -9 4
15 Naftagas 8 7 10 -3 6
16 OFK Bor 1919 8 7 13 -6 8
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