Predictions / Football / Serbia. Prva Liga / Napredak vs Semendrija 1924

Prediction Audit: Napredak vs Semendrija 1924 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Napredak Napredak
Sep 21, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.30
4 1.30
xG Accuracy: 44%
Semendrija 1924 Semendrija 1924

The model missed the final outcome (Semendrija 1924 win 1–4).

The model had projected Napredak at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Napredak Semendrija 1924 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Napredak higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Napredak -8.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Napredak 35.2% 43.4% -8.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.5% +3.1 pp Aligned
Semendrija 1924 35.2% 30.1% +5.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Napredak's win probability at 43.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Semendrija 1924 win 1–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Napredak. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Napredak; match finished Semendrija 1924
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Napredak by 8.2 percentage points (43.4% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Napredak 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Semendrija 1924 35.2%
    • xG · Napredak 1.30 — Semendrija 1924 1.30
  2. Sep 21, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Napredak 2.05 · Draw 3.35 · Semendrija 1924 2.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Napredak 43.4% · Draw 26.5% · Semendrija 1924 30.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 21, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Napredak 2.05 · Draw 3.35 · Semendrija 1924 2.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Napredak 43.4% · Draw 26.5% · Semendrija 1924 30.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Semendrija 1924 win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 59/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8688676

Closing Odds 2.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Semendrija 1924 win · Napredak 1–4 Semendrija 1924
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Prva Liga
  • Fixture: Napredak vs Semendrija 1924
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-21 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Napredak 1.3 — Semendrija 1924 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 47.9% · Probability edge: +6.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Prva Liga Prva Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Cacak 11 8 1 2 25
2 TSC Backa Topola 11 5 6 0 21
3 Semendrija 1924 11 6 3 2 21
4 OFK Vršac 11 7 0 4 21
5 Javor 10 5 4 1 19
6 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 4 3 3 15
7 Metalac GM 10 4 2 4 14
8 FK Vozdovac 10 4 2 4 14
9 Dubočica 10 4 2 4 14
10 Napredak 10 4 1 5 13
11 Loznica 10 2 6 2 12
12 OFK Bor 1919 10 2 2 6 8
13 Naftagas 10 1 4 5 7
14 Jedinstvo Ub 10 2 1 7 7
15 Grafičar 10 2 1 7 7
16 Teleoptik 10 1 4 5 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Javor 10 25 12 +13 19
2 TSC Backa Topola 11 20 12 +8 21
3 Borac Cacak 11 20 13 +7 25
4 Semendrija 1924 11 20 13 +7 21
5 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 18 15 +3 15
6 OFK Vršac 11 16 11 +5 21
7 Metalac GM 10 14 12 +2 14
8 Loznica 10 14 16 -2 12
9 Dubočica 10 12 14 -2 14
10 FK Vozdovac 10 11 10 +1 14
11 Jedinstvo Ub 10 11 18 -7 7
12 Grafičar 10 11 18 -7 7
13 Teleoptik 10 11 19 -8 7
14 Napredak 10 10 15 -5 13
15 Naftagas 10 10 15 -5 7
16 OFK Bor 1919 10 7 17 -10 8
Prva Liga Serbia. Prva Liga Predictions