The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Naftagas at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Naftagas Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naftagas | 36.1% | 18.9% | +17.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.1% | +6.6 pp | Model Higher |
| TSC Backa Topola | 34.2% | 58.0% | -23.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates TSC Backa Topola's win probability at 58.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 23.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Naftagas; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Naftagas by 23.8 percentage points (59.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Naftagas 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · TSC Backa Topola 34.2%
- xG · Naftagas 1.32 — TSC Backa Topola 1.28
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Naftagas 4.75 · Draw 3.90 · TSC Backa Topola 1.55
- Implied 1X2 · Naftagas 18.9% · Draw 23.1% · TSC Backa Topola 58.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Naftagas 4.75 · Draw 3.90 · TSC Backa Topola 1.55
- Implied 1X2 · Naftagas 18.9% · Draw 23.1% · TSC Backa Topola 58.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Prva Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borac Cacak | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 |
| 2 | TSC Backa Topola | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 | Semendrija 1924 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 4 | OFK Vršac | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | Javor | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Metalac GM | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | FK Vozdovac | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Dubočica | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Napredak | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | Loznica | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | OFK Bor 1919 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | Naftagas | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 14 | Jedinstvo Ub | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 15 | Grafičar | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 16 | Teleoptik | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javor | 10 | 25 | 12 | +13 | 19 |
| 2 | TSC Backa Topola | 11 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 | Borac Cacak | 11 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 25 |
| 4 | Semendrija 1924 | 11 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 10 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 | OFK Vršac | 11 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 21 |
| 7 | Metalac GM | 10 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Loznica | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Dubočica | 10 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | FK Vozdovac | 10 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | Jedinstvo Ub | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Grafičar | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Teleoptik | 10 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Napredak | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 | Naftagas | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 10 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
