Predictions / Football / Serbia. Prva Liga / Dubočica vs Teleoptik

Prediction Audit: Dubočica vs Teleoptik Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dubočica Dubočica
Sep 16, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 57%
Teleoptik Teleoptik

The model missed the final outcome (Dubočica win 2–0).

The model had projected Teleoptik at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Teleoptik Dubočica ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Dubočica -3.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dubočica 34.2% 37.8% -3.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 27.8% +1.9 pp Aligned
Teleoptik 36.1% 34.4% +1.7 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Dubočica win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Teleoptik; match finished Dubočica
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Dubočica win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dubočica 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Teleoptik 36.1%
    • xG · Dubočica 1.28 — Teleoptik 1.32
  2. Sep 16, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dubočica 2.35 · Draw 3.20 · Teleoptik 2.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Dubočica 37.8% · Draw 27.8% · Teleoptik 34.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dubočica 2.35 · Draw 3.20 · Teleoptik 2.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Dubočica 37.8% · Draw 27.8% · Teleoptik 34.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dubočica win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 28/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 08:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7886890

Closing Odds 2.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dubočica win · Dubočica 2–0 Teleoptik
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Prva Liga
  • Fixture: Dubočica vs Teleoptik
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Dubočica 1.28 — Teleoptik 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.0% · Probability edge: +6.8 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Prva Liga Prva Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Cacak 11 8 1 2 25
2 TSC Backa Topola 11 5 6 0 21
3 Semendrija 1924 11 6 3 2 21
4 OFK Vršac 11 7 0 4 21
5 Javor 10 5 4 1 19
6 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 4 3 3 15
7 Metalac GM 10 4 2 4 14
8 FK Vozdovac 10 4 2 4 14
9 Dubočica 10 4 2 4 14
10 Napredak 10 4 1 5 13
11 Loznica 10 2 6 2 12
12 OFK Bor 1919 10 2 2 6 8
13 Naftagas 10 1 4 5 7
14 Jedinstvo Ub 10 2 1 7 7
15 Grafičar 10 2 1 7 7
16 Teleoptik 10 1 4 5 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Javor 10 25 12 +13 19
2 TSC Backa Topola 11 20 12 +8 21
3 Borac Cacak 11 20 13 +7 25
4 Semendrija 1924 11 20 13 +7 21
5 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 18 15 +3 15
6 OFK Vršac 11 16 11 +5 21
7 Metalac GM 10 14 12 +2 14
8 Loznica 10 14 16 -2 12
9 Dubočica 10 12 14 -2 14
10 FK Vozdovac 10 11 10 +1 14
11 Jedinstvo Ub 10 11 18 -7 7
12 Grafičar 10 11 18 -7 7
13 Teleoptik 10 11 19 -8 7
14 Napredak 10 10 15 -5 13
15 Naftagas 10 10 15 -5 7
16 OFK Bor 1919 10 7 17 -10 8
Prva Liga Serbia. Prva Liga Predictions