Predictions / Football / Serbia. Prva Liga / Semendrija 1924 vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Prediction Audit: Semendrija 1924 vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Semendrija 1924 Semendrija 1924
Sep 16, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 78%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

AI correctly predicted the Semendrija 1924 win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Semendrija 1924 Semendrija 1924 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +0.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Semendrija 1924 37.1% 37.3% -0.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 28.7% +0.9 pp Aligned
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 33.3% 33.9% -0.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Semendrija 1924 win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Semendrija 1924 win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 16, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Semendrija 1924 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 33.4%
    • xG · Semendrija 1924 1.34 — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.26
  2. Sep 16, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Semendrija 1924 2.41 · Draw 3.13 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Semendrija 1924 37.3% · Draw 28.7% · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 33.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 16, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Semendrija 1924 2.41 · Draw 3.13 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Semendrija 1924 37.3% · Draw 28.7% · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 33.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 16, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Semendrija 1924 win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 79/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 95/100
Betting Confidence 82/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 08:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7887008

Closing Odds 3.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Semendrija 1924 win · Semendrija 1924 2–1 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Prva Liga
  • Fixture: Semendrija 1924 vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Semendrija 1924 1.34 — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.9% · Probability edge: +2.9 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Prva Liga Prva Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Cacak 11 8 1 2 25
2 TSC Backa Topola 11 5 6 0 21
3 Semendrija 1924 11 6 3 2 21
4 OFK Vršac 11 7 0 4 21
5 Javor 10 5 4 1 19
6 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 4 3 3 15
7 Metalac GM 10 4 2 4 14
8 FK Vozdovac 10 4 2 4 14
9 Dubočica 10 4 2 4 14
10 Napredak 10 4 1 5 13
11 Loznica 10 2 6 2 12
12 OFK Bor 1919 10 2 2 6 8
13 Naftagas 10 1 4 5 7
14 Jedinstvo Ub 10 2 1 7 7
15 Grafičar 10 2 1 7 7
16 Teleoptik 10 1 4 5 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Javor 10 25 12 +13 19
2 TSC Backa Topola 11 20 12 +8 21
3 Borac Cacak 11 20 13 +7 25
4 Semendrija 1924 11 20 13 +7 21
5 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 18 15 +3 15
6 OFK Vršac 11 16 11 +5 21
7 Metalac GM 10 14 12 +2 14
8 Loznica 10 14 16 -2 12
9 Dubočica 10 12 14 -2 14
10 FK Vozdovac 10 11 10 +1 14
11 Jedinstvo Ub 10 11 18 -7 7
12 Grafičar 10 11 18 -7 7
13 Teleoptik 10 11 19 -8 7
14 Napredak 10 10 15 -5 13
15 Naftagas 10 10 15 -5 7
16 OFK Bor 1919 10 7 17 -10 8
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