Riesgo de avería del modelo
Resumen:
No interprete la comparación entre modelo y mercado hasta que pase la validación.
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El modelo y el mercado difieren en 32.1 puntos porcentuales. El resultado del modelo puede no ser confiable para este emparejamiento: valide las entradas antes de interpretar las probabilidades.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariehamn | 43.56% | 12.83% | +30.7 pp |
| Empate | 21.46% | 20.06% | +1.4 pp |
| HJK Helsinki | 34.99% | 67.11% | -32.1 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
El modelo y el mercado difieren en 32.1 puntos porcentuales. El resultado del modelo puede no ser confiable para este emparejamiento: valide las entradas antes de interpretar las probabilidades.
Etapa actual: La validación del modelo falló
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
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{
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"status_label": "Model breakdown risk",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
"edge_pp": 1.4,
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{
"edge_pp": -32.12,
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},
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"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
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"headline": "Model breakdown risk",
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"summary": "Do not interpret model vs market comparison until validation passes.",
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"validation_label": "Fail"
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"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -32.12,
"hero_label": "HJK Helsinki",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "very_weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
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"market_narrative": {},
"max_gap_pp": 32.12,
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"status": "fail"
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"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.6 pp (at 43.6%)."
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"lead_gap_pp": 8.6,
"max_prob_pct": 43.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 30.73,
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"label": "Mariehamn",
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"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.4,
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"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
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"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -32.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.99,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "HJK Helsinki",
"market_prob_pct": 67.11,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "model_breakdown_risk",
"status_label": "Model Breakdown Risk",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers HJK Helsinki (12.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Mariehamn, Market \u2192 HJK Helsinki, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "model_validation_failed",
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"current_stage_label": "Model validation failed",
"entry_implied_pct": 72.73,
"entry_odds": 1.38,
"model_validation_label": "Fail",
"model_validation_status": "fail",
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{
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"id": "forecast_generated",
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"status": "done"
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
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"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
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"status": "lost"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
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]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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},
"market_overview": {
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"current_odds": 6.89,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 6.89,
"pick_team": "Mariehamn",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_team_name": "Mariehamn",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
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"show": true
},
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"away_team_id": 649,
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"away_team_name": "HJK Helsinki",
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"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
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"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
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"score": 5.5
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"markets": {
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"best_odd": 1.375,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": -0.0999,
"ev": -0.2145,
"implied_prob": 0.6711,
"model_prob": 0.35,
"p_final": 0.5713
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"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1957,
"best_odd": 4.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.0644,
"implied_prob": 0.2006,
"model_prob": 0.2148,
"p_final": 0.2034
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"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1079,
"best_odd": 7.195,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": 0.0331,
"ev": 0.1611,
"implied_prob": 0.1283,
"model_prob": 0.4352,
"p_final": 0.1614
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},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.77,
"edge_no": -0.267,
"edge_yes": 0.267,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.5913,
"ev_yes": 0.3912,
"implied_no": 0.481,
"implied_yes": 0.519,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.56,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"edge_over": 0.2104,
"edge_under": -0.2104,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2496,
"ev_under": -0.5523,
"implied_over": 0.5906,
"implied_under": 0.4094,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.29,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3912,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.786,
"draw_prob": 0.2148,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4352,
"over_prob": 0.801,
"total_xg": 4.29,
"under_prob": 0.199,
"xg_diff": 0.23
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0331,
"ev": 0.1611,
"implied_prob": 0.1283,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4352,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Mariehamn"
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"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
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"ev": 0.3912,
"implied_prob": 0.519,
"model_prob": 0.786,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
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"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2104,
"ev": 0.2496,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"model_prob": 0.801,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1495714,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3912,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.35,
"draw": 0.2148,
"home": 0.4352
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2496,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.801,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2496,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.801,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1611,
"implied_prob": 0.1283,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4352,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Mariehamn",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "HJK Helsinki",
"home": "Mariehamn"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.26874,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3912,
"implied_prob": 0.519,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.786,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1495714,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T09:12:52.054934+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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