Lahti vs Turku PS Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

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      "btts_yes_prob": 0.735,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2321,
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      "fair_odds_away": 2.36,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.31,
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      "fair_odds_home": 2.9,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
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      "home_win_prob": 0.3446,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.734,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.266
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Lahti or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Lahti"
    },
    "away_xg": 2.01,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Turku PS",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.1734,
        "edge_gap": 0.0789,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.2501,
        "model_prob": 0.4235,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 42.3,
          "draw": 23.2,
          "home": 34.5
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": null,
          "bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
          "odd": 3.7
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
          "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
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        "best_odds": 3.7,
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        "label": "Away",
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        "market_odds": 3.69,
        "model_odds": 2.36,
        "overround": 8.4,
        "prob_edge": 15.3,
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        "value_rating": "strong_value"
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    },
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        "away_failed_to_score": 2,
        "away_played": 10,
        "away_score_rate": 86.6,
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        "home_played": 10,
        "home_score_rate": 83.6,
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        "pick": "Yes",
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        "yes_prob": 73.5
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        "home_expected": 1.81,
        "scores": [
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            "away": 2,
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            "away": 1,
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            "away": 2,
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            "away": 1,
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          {
            "away": 3,
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          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Lahti or Draw",
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          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Lahti or Turku PS",
            "prob": 76.8
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          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Turku PS",
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        "market": "Turku PS Win",
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        "featured": true,
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        "ev_yes": 0.301,
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        "hero_label": "Turku PS",
        "market_prob_pct": 25.0,
        "market_team": "Lahti",
        "model_prob_pct": 42.3,
        "model_team": "Turku PS",
        "show": true,
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        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
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        "title": "Betting Signal"
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          "edge_pp": -12.99,
          "fair_prob": 34.46,
          "label": "Lahti",
          "market_prob": 47.45,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -4.34,
          "fair_prob": 23.21,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 27.55,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 17.32,
          "fair_prob": 42.33,
          "label": "Turku PS",
          "market_prob": 25.01,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 25.7,
          "fair_prob": 73.4,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
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          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -25.7,
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          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
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          "edge_pp": 21.6,
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          "label": "BTTS Yes",
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          "outcome": "yes"
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          "edge_pp": -21.6,
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          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 48.1,
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          "outcome": "no"
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        "edge_pp": 17.32,
        "fair_prob_pct": 42.33,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Turku PS",
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        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Lahti"
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          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
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        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Turku PS",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 25.0,
          "model_prob_pct": 42.3,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Turku PS, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Lahti remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 17.32,
        "hero_label": "Turku PS",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Lahti has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Turku PS.",
          "note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Lahti.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Turku PS.",
            "However, Lahti has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market activity is currently concentrated on Lahti."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Turku PS more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "At the same time, Lahti has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (2/2) supports the current market view on Lahti."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 17.32,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.9 pp (at 42.3%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 7.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 42.3,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -12.99,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.46,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Lahti",
            "market_prob_pct": 47.45,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -4.34,
            "fair_prob_pct": 23.21,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.55,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 17.32,
            "fair_prob_pct": 42.33,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Turku PS",
            "market_prob_pct": 25.01,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Lahti.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Lahti (25.0%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Turku PS, Market \u2192 Lahti, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
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        "closing_odds": null,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": null,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "model_validation_warning",
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        "current_stage_label": "Model validation warning",
        "entry_implied_pct": 27.1,
        "entry_odds": 3.69,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
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            "id": "closing_recorded",
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      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "2/2",
        "current_odds": 1.96,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 1.96,
        "pick_team": "Lahti",
        "steam_score": 34,
        "steam_team_name": "Lahti",
        "steam_tier": "C"
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      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 1168,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1168.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Turku PS",
      "country_code": "FI",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
      "country_name": "Finland",
      "fixture_id": 1495710,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Finland",
      "home_team_id": 1166,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1166.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Lahti",
      "league_country": "Finland",
      "league_id": 244,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/244.webp",
      "league_name": "Veikkausliiga",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-23 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Lahti",
      "venue_name": "Lahden Stadion"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
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          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.222,
            "best_odd": 3.69,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0385,
            "ev": 0.0648,
            "implied_prob": 0.2501,
            "model_prob": 0.4235,
            "p_final": 0.2886
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2804,
            "best_odd": 3.35,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0122,
            "ev": -0.1181,
            "implied_prob": 0.2755,
            "model_prob": 0.2319,
            "p_final": 0.2632
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4832,
            "best_odd": 1.945,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0627,
            "ev": -0.1992,
            "implied_prob": 0.4745,
            "model_prob": 0.3446,
            "p_final": 0.4117
          }
        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.77,
          "edge_no": -0.216,
          "edge_yes": 0.216,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.4939,
          "ev_yes": 0.301,
          "implied_no": 0.481,
          "implied_yes": 0.519,
          "n_bookmakers": 1,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.93,
          "best_under_odd": 1.76,
          "edge_over": 0.257,
          "edge_under": -0.257,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.4166,
          "ev_under": -0.5318,
          "implied_over": 0.477,
          "implied_under": 0.523,
          "n_bookmakers": 1,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.82,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
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      "confidence": 6.5,
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          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
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      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
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  "fixture_id": 1495710,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T09:10:35.515555+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}