FF Jaro vs Gnistan Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Jun 23, 2026 - 16:00
3.00
1.54
67% 17% 17%

Evaluación de predicción

Tenga cuidado

Favorito
FF Jaro Favorito
Probabilidad del modelo
66.5%
Probabilidad de mercado
37.1%
Acuerdo de mercado
Débil
Validación
Advertencia

Resumen:

El modelo y el mercado se inclinan del mismo lado hacia FF Jaro, pero las diferencias de precios justifican la precaución.

Auditoría de Mercado

Acuerdo de mercado
Débil
Validación
Advertencia
Mayor brecha
FF Jaro +29.4 pp
Amplitud
2/2
Actividad actual del mercado
Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.

La estimación justa difiere sustancialmente de los precios actuales del mercado. Pueden ocurrir grandes divergencias cuando los datos de calificación son incompletos, las estimaciones de la fuerza del equipo son inciertas o el mercado incorpora información que no está presente en el modelo. Interprete con precaución.

Resultado Justo Mercado Borde
FF Jaro 66.5% 37.06% +29.4 pp
Empate 16.93% 26.98% -10.1 pp
Gnistan 16.57% 35.97% -19.4 pp

Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.

Se requiere validación del modelo

El modelo y el mercado difieren materialmente (29.4 puntos porcentuales). Se recomienda una validación adicional antes de interpretar esta comparación.

  • Detectada divergencia extrema entre modelos y mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Más de 2.5 — Valor
vehículo eléctrico +25%+ Modelo 83.1%
Secundaria (valor equilibrado): BTTS Sí (vehículo eléctrico +20.5%) — 75.3% Modelo
Secundaria (valor equilibrado): FF Jaro (vehículo eléctrico +10.0%) — 66.5% Modelo
EV más bajo que el primario, pero con mayor probabilidad de modelo (más “estable” cuando se muestra).
Ambos Equipos Marcarán Mejor valor (+EV)
75.3% · No 24.7%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +20.5% · EV No -46.4%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
1X2 Mejor valor (+EV)
FF Jaro · Probabilidad del modelo 66.5%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 37.1%
EV línea de consenso: +10.0%
Perspectivas de marcador exacto Fuera / diversión
Más probable
2-1
Probabilidad 7.4%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 7.5 / 10
  • Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
  • EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
  • Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5: EV terminado +25%+ · EV inferior -67.0% (1 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +20.5% · EV No -46.4%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Ciclo de vida de decisión

Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo

  1. Predicción generada
  2. Mercado comparado
  3. Validación aprobada
  4. Cierre grabado
  5. CLV evaluado
Entrada
2.48
Cierre
Pendiente
CLV
Pendiente

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

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          "market_prob_pct": 37.1,
          "model_prob_pct": 66.5,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
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          "reliability_icon": "!",
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          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
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        },
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          "tier": "high",
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        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 29.44,
        "hero_label": "FF Jaro",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
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        "model_validation": {
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        "outcome_separation": {
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          ],
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          "max_prob_pct": 66.5,
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          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
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        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
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            "fair_prob_pct": 16.93,
            "is_hero": false,
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            "side": "draw"
          },
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            "is_hero": false,
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            "market_prob_pct": 35.97,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers FF Jaro (37.1%).",
          "Model and market lean the same side on FF Jaro, but pricing gaps warrant caution."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": null,
        "closing_odds": null,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": null,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "model_validation_warning",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Model validation warning",
        "entry_implied_pct": 40.4,
        "entry_odds": 2.48,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
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            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
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          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "pending"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "2/2",
        "current_odds": 2.45,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.45,
        "pick_team": "FF Jaro",
        "steam_score": 34,
        "steam_team_name": "FF Jaro",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 29.4,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2082,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2082.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Gnistan",
      "country_code": "FI",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
      "country_name": "Finland",
      "fixture_id": 1495713,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Finland",
      "home_team_id": 2075,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2075.webp",
      "home_team_name": "FF Jaro",
      "league_country": "Finland",
      "league_id": 244,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/244.webp",
      "league_name": "Veikkausliiga",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-23 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Pietarsaari",
      "venue_name": "Project Liv Arena"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 8.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.319,
            "best_odd": 2.55,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0619,
            "ev": -0.2407,
            "implied_prob": 0.3597,
            "model_prob": 0.1656,
            "p_final": 0.2978
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2546,
            "best_odd": 3.4,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0257,
            "ev": -0.1701,
            "implied_prob": 0.2698,
            "model_prob": 0.1689,
            "p_final": 0.2441
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2509,
            "best_odd": 2.475,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.074,
            "ev": 0.1003,
            "implied_prob": 0.3706,
            "model_prob": 0.6655,
            "p_final": 0.4446
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.17,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.6,
          "edge_no": -0.1774,
          "edge_yes": 0.1774,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.464,
          "ev_yes": 0.2048,
          "implied_no": 0.4244,
          "implied_yes": 0.5756,
          "n_bookmakers": 1,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.75,
          "best_under_odd": 1.95,
          "edge_over": 0.304,
          "edge_under": -0.304,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.4543,
          "ev_under": -0.6704,
          "implied_over": 0.527,
          "implied_under": 0.473,
          "n_bookmakers": 1,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 4.54,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.4543,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.753,
          "draw_prob": 0.1689,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6655,
          "over_prob": 0.831,
          "total_xg": 4.54,
          "under_prob": 0.169,
          "xg_diff": 1.46
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.074,
          "ev": 0.1003,
          "implied_prob": 0.3706,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.6655,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "FF Jaro"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1774,
          "ev": 0.2048,
          "implied_prob": 0.5756,
          "model_prob": 0.753,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.304,
          "ev": 0.4543,
          "implied_prob": 0.527,
          "model_prob": 0.831,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1495713,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.4543,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1656,
        "draw": 0.1689,
        "home": 0.6655
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2048,
        "implied_prob": 0.5756,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.753,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.2048,
          "implied_prob": 0.5756,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.753,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        },
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1003,
          "implied_prob": 0.3706,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.6655,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "FF Jaro",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Gnistan",
        "home": "FF Jaro"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.286918,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.4543,
        "implied_prob": 0.527,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.831,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1495713,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T09:12:32.966353+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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