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Market Movement - France - Ligue 1

Predictions

Price discovery after publication — how opening markets react before the closing capture window.

Last updated: Live Next refresh: Time window: today Total fixtures: 4

Today's Summary

4 Significant Movements
Avg Move 12.2%

Today's Market Analysis

  • 4 fixtures saw meaningful repricing today (avg 12.2% move).
  • Strongest steam: Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans (17.4%, 10 books).
  • 3 fixtures showed broad consensus.
  • No closing-line validation is yet available for today's open fixtures.

Today's Market Health

★★★ ☆☆
Mixed signals

Moderate liquidity · Strong consensus · Solid CLV history · Volatile repricing

Market Metrics

  • Steam Activity 2 moves > threshold
    Moderate
  • Bookmaker Consensus 3 broad repricing events
    Low
  • Market Trend 25% shortening · 75% lengthening
    Low
  • CLV Context 0 fixtures with CLV data
    Pending

Top Movers

  1. 1
    Lorient vs Paris FC
    ↑ +20.0%
  2. 2
    Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans
    ↓ -17.4%
  3. 3
    Monaco vs Toulouse
    ↑ +6.5%

Biggest Steam

  1. Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans ↓ -17.4% Steam 86
  2. 2
    Lorient vs Paris FC ↑ +20.0% Steam 68
  3. 3
    Monaco vs Toulouse ↑ +6.5% Steam 46

Highest Breadth

  1. 1
    Lorient vs Paris FC ↑ +20.0% 10/10
  2. 2
    Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans ↓ -17.4% 8/10
  3. 3
    Monaco vs Toulouse ↑ +6.5% 7/10

Most Books Agree

  1. 1
    Monaco vs Toulouse ↑ +6.5%
  2. 2
    Lorient vs Paris FC ↑ +20.0%
  3. 3
    Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans ↓ -17.4%

Fastest Odds Change

  1. 1
    Lorient vs Paris FC ↑ +20.0%
  2. 2
    Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans ↓ -17.4%
  3. 3
    Monaco vs Toulouse ↑ +6.5%

League Intelligence (30 days)

1 Matches Tracked
61.0 Avg Steam
21.4% Avg Move
21.4% Biggest Move
0.0% Home Steam %
0.0% Fav Steam %

Ligue 1 (France) markets are monitored for opening odds, steam repricing, and closing-line movement across major sportsbooks. Domestic league fixtures typically offer steadier liquidity and more predictable closing lines than cup ties. When sufficient pricing data is available, OddsGPT tracks breadth, steam score, and CLV validation for each fixture.Over the last 30 days, average steam score reached 61.0 while bookmaker consensus averaged 30% breadth, with 1 steam-backed repricing events.

Over the past 30 days, France - Ligue 1 has produced moderate steam activity with an average Steam Score of 61.0. Typical line moves averaged 21.4% and the largest swing reached 21.4%. Historical closing-line validation has skewed positive (100% CLV rate). Home-side steam represented 0.0% of tracked signals; favourites drew 0.0% of steam-backed moves.

Live Market Moves Early Sharp Moves Final Closing Moves Move Review
Live market monitor

Filters apply to the match list below — highlights above stay unchanged.

Match(4) Side Open Current Move Signal Ref book Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Context Market state CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance.
Monaco vs Toulouse Ligue 1 · Sat 18:45 Monaco 1.55 1.65
kickoff in 2h 22m 		↑ +6.5%
1.55 1.65

🐢 Slow drift over 125h 35m
1.70 → 1.54 → 1.65 		⚡ Sharp-led move Bet365 7/10
Steam Score: 46 B Moderate sharp signal

A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation.

 — Sharp repricing Waiting for Close Bet365 led repricing on Monaco (6.5%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through.
Lorient vs Paris FC Ligue 1 · Sat 18:45 Lorient 3.0 3.6
kickoff in 2h 22m 		↑ +20.0%
3.0 3.6

🐢 Slow drift over 125h 35m
3.90 → 2.82 → 3.60 		📉 Strong drift Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair 		10/10
Steam Score: 68 A Strong sharp signal

Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam).

 Highest consensus move Market drift Waiting for Close 10/10 books lengthened Lorient together (20.0% drift, score 68) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip.
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Ligue 1 · Sat 18:45 Le Mans 23.0 19.0
kickoff in 2h 22m 		↓ -17.4%
23.0 19.0

🐢 Slow drift over 125h 35m
34.00 → 14.92 → 19.00 		🔥 Strong steam Bet365 8/10
Steam Score: 86 A+ Strong multi-book steam

Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through.

 — Sharp repricing Waiting for Close 8/10 books synchronized on Le Mans (17.4% steam, score 86) — high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.
Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers Ligue 1 · Sat 18:45 Stade Brestois 29 1.91 2.0
kickoff in 2h 22m 		↑ +4.7%
1.91 2.0

🐢 Slow drift over 125h 35m
2.04 → 1.91 → 2.00 		⚠️ Volatile market Bet365 3/10
Steam Score: 21 C Limited conviction

Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal.

 — Volatile Waiting for Close Volatile two-way pricing on Stade Brestois 29 (swing 2.04 → 1.91 → 2.00) — net 4.7% but intraday chop is elevated.