Dự báo đáng tin cậy
Bản tóm tắt:
Mô hình và thị trường đều nghiêng về Sportivo Italiano, nhưng không cho thấy nhóm nào được yêu thích hơn. Hòa và {giây} vẫn hợp lý - đây là một trận đấu tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý và giá cả thị trường khác nhau một cách khiêm tốn. Theo dõi trước giờ khai mạc.
Ước tính hợp lý cho thấy lợi thế khiêm tốn so với giá thị trường hiện tại của Sportivo Italiano.
Hoạt động thị trường phù hợp với khoảng cách giá lớn nhất trên Sportivo Italiano.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Italiano | 39.46% | 32.93% | +6.5 pp |
| Hòa | 29.51% | 32.57% | -3.1 pp |
| Excursionistas | 31.03% | 34.5% | -3.5 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Sportivo Italiano market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Sportivo Italiano
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Giám sát thị trường
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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{
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{
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"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
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{
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"outcome": "draw"
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{
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"outcome": "away"
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{
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{
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{
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"outcome": "no"
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"hero_side": "home",
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"market_prob_pct": 32.93,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
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"comparison_disabled": false,
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"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 6.53,
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"suppress_value_language": false
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"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sportivo Italiano",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_prob_pct": 32.9,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
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"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Sportivo Italiano, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Excursionistas remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.53,
"hero_label": "Sportivo Italiano",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Sportivo Italiano.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Sportivo Italiano.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Sportivo Italiano.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Sportivo Italiano."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Sportivo Italiano.",
"Recent line movement on Sportivo Italiano (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Sportivo Italiano."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
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"max_gap_pp": 6.53,
"model_validation": {
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"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
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"side": "home"
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{
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"label": "Draw",
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{
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"label": "Excursionistas",
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"side": "away"
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],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Sportivo Italiano.",
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},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Excursionistas (32.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sportivo Italiano, Market \u2192 Excursionistas, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
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"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.36,
"entry_odds": 2.75,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
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{
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"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"pick_team": "Sportivo Italiano",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Sportivo Italiano",
"steam_tier": "C"
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"premium_teaser": {
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
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"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 8385,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8385.webp",
"away_team_name": "Excursionistas",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499472,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 8388,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8388.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sportivo Italiano",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 18:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Republica de Italia Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
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"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": -0.0148,
"ev": -0.1333,
"implied_prob": 0.345,
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.3302
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4291,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": -0.0133,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4057,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0266,
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"p_final": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
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"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"edge_no": -0.1321,
"edge_yes": 0.1321,
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"ev_no": -0.2368,
"ev_yes": 0.2923,
"implied_no": 0.5891,
"implied_yes": 0.4109,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.85,
"best_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.1517,
"edge_under": -0.1517,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3737,
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"implied_over": 0.3303,
"implied_under": 0.6697,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
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"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3737,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0266,
"ev": -0.0212,
"implied_prob": 0.3293,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sportivo Italiano"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1321,
"ev": 0.2923,
"implied_prob": 0.4109,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1517,
"ev": 0.3737,
"implied_prob": 0.3303,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499472,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3737,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3737,
"implied_prob": 0.3303,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3737,
"implied_prob": 0.3303,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Excursionistas",
"home": "Sportivo Italiano"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.158719,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2923,
"implied_prob": 0.4109,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499472,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T09:43:17.916664+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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