Dự báo đáng tin cậy
Bản tóm tắt:
Mô hình và thị trường đều nghiêng về San Martín Burzaco, nhưng không cho thấy nhóm nào được yêu thích hơn. Hòa và {giây} vẫn hợp lý - đây là một trận đấu tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Biến động lớn nhất hôm nay
↔ Di chuyển dần dần trong 7h 59m
Betfair dẫn đầu thay đổi giá trên San Martín Burzaco (5.2%) — sách sharp di chuyển trước khi thị trường rộng hơn theo sau.
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation.
Ước tính hợp lý và giá cả thị trường khác nhau một cách khiêm tốn. Theo dõi trước giờ khai mạc.
Ước tính hợp lý cho thấy lợi thế khiêm tốn so với giá thị trường hiện tại của San Martín Burzaco.
Hoạt động thị trường phù hợp với khoảng cách giá lớn nhất trên San Martín Burzaco.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Martín Burzaco | 37.54% | 32.52% | +5.0 pp |
| Hòa | 29.61% | 32.29% | -2.7 pp |
| Villa Dalmine | 32.85% | 35.19% | -2.3 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
San Martín Burzaco market context before kickoff
⚡ Di chuyển dẫn dắt bởi sharp on San Martín Burzaco
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Giám sát thị trường
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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"outcome": "home"
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{
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"label": "Draw",
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"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
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{
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"label": "Villa Dalmine",
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"outcome": "away"
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{
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{
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{
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"outcome": "yes"
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{
"edge_pp": -14.37,
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"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.87,
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"outcome": "no"
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],
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"edge_pp": -2.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.36,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Villa Dalmine"
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"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
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"divergence_level": "aligned",
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"edge_label": "Aligned",
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"fair_confidence": "medium",
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"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
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"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
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"summary": "The model and market both lean San Mart\u00edn Burzaco, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Villa Dalmine remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.75,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Villa Dalmine odds lengthened \u2191 +15.2%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Villa Dalmine has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Villa Dalmine \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Villa Dalmine has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Villa Dalmine \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
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"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/12) supports the current market view on Villa Dalmine."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 2.75,
"model_validation": {
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"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
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"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
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"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
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{
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{
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"side": "away"
}
],
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"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers San Mart\u00edn Burzaco (35.4%).",
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"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 San Mart\u00edn Burzaco, Market \u2192 San Mart\u00edn Burzaco, Recent sharp money \u2192 Villa Dalmine.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"clv_pending": true,
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"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"move_speed_label": "Active repricing over 3h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"10/12 books synchronized on Villa Dalmine (15.2% steam, score 82) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
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"points": [
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"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
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},
{
"label_key": "current",
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],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
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},
"open_odds": 2.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Villa Dalmine \u2191 +15.2% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Villa Dalmine",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Villa Dalmine \u2191 +15.2% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 82,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
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"move_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
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},
"premium_teaser": {
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
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],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 481,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/481.webp",
"away_team_name": "Villa Dalmine",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499471,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 8387,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8387.webp",
"home_team_name": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 23:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Francisco Boga Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4458,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.0894,
"implied_prob": 0.3224,
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3252
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4311,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1308,
"implied_prob": 0.3236,
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.3115
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4354,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.354,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3634
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"edge_no": -0.1437,
"edge_yes": 0.1437,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_yes": 0.3625,
"implied_no": 0.5987,
"implied_yes": 0.4013,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 3.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.38,
"edge_over": 0.1635,
"edge_under": -0.1635,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.5665,
"ev_under": -0.2852,
"implied_over": 0.3185,
"implied_under": 0.6815,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5665,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.354,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1437,
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.4013,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1635,
"ev": 0.5665,
"implied_prob": 0.3185,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499471,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5665,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5665,
"implied_prob": 0.3185,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5665,
"implied_prob": 0.3185,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Villa Dalmine",
"home": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.197563,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.4013,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499471,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T07:13:17.810423+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana Dự đoán
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