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Bản tóm tắt:
Mô hình và thị trường đều nghiêng về Deportivo Camioneros, nhưng không cho thấy nhóm nào được yêu thích hơn. Hòa và {giây} vẫn hợp lý - đây là một trận đấu tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý khác biệt đáng kể so với giá thị trường hiện tại. Điều này có thể phản ánh sự bất đồng thực sự hoặc thông tin đánh giá đầu vào không đầy đủ.
Ước tính hợp lý về mặt thống kê cao hơn đáng kể so với thị trường trên Deportivo Camioneros.
Hoạt động thị trường phù hợp với khoảng cách giá lớn nhất trên Deportivo Camioneros.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Camioneros | 36.11% | 25.46% | +10.7 pp |
| Hòa | 29.65% | 32.39% | -2.7 pp |
| Arsenal Sarandi | 34.24% | 42.14% | -7.9 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Deportivo Camioneros market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Deportivo Camioneros
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Cảnh báo xác thực mô hình
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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"betting_markets": {
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"text": "-25.8%"
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"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
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"model_team": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
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"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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"outcome": "home"
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{
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"label": "Draw",
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"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
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{
"edge_pp": -7.85,
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"label": "Arsenal Sarandi",
"market_prob": 42.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
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{
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"outcome": "over"
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{
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"label": "Under 2.5",
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"outcome": "under"
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{
"edge_pp": 14.22,
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"outcome": "yes"
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{
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"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
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],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"market_prob_pct": 25.49,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Camioneros"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.62,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 25.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Deportivo Camioneros, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Arsenal Sarandi remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.62,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Deportivo Camioneros.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo Camioneros.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Deportivo Camioneros.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo Camioneros."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Deportivo Camioneros more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Deportivo Camioneros (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Deportivo Camioneros."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 10.62,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
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"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
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"is_hero": true,
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"side": "home"
},
{
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"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
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"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Arsenal Sarandi",
"market_prob_pct": 42.09,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo Camioneros.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Arsenal Sarandi (25.5%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Deportivo Camioneros, Market \u2192 Arsenal Sarandi, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "model_validation_warning",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Model validation warning",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.97,
"entry_odds": 3.58,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
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"id": "forecast_generated",
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"status": "done"
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{
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"id": "market_detected",
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{
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"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 459,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/459.webp",
"away_team_name": "Arsenal Sarandi",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499467,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 3943,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3943.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 18:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Hugo Moyano"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.397,
"best_odd": 2.165,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0312,
"ev": -0.1563,
"implied_prob": 0.4209,
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4314,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.1223,
"implied_prob": 0.3243,
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3124
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2523,
"best_odd": 3.575,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0268,
"ev": 0.0068,
"implied_prob": 0.2549,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2816
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.63,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"edge_no": -0.1422,
"edge_yes": 0.1422,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2583,
"ev_yes": 0.3625,
"implied_no": 0.5972,
"implied_yes": 0.4028,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 3.0,
"best_under_odd": 1.41,
"edge_over": 0.1515,
"edge_under": -0.1515,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.446,
"ev_under": -0.2696,
"implied_over": 0.3305,
"implied_under": 0.6695,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.446,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0268,
"ev": 0.0068,
"implied_prob": 0.2549,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Deportivo Camioneros"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1422,
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.4028,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1515,
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.3305,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499467,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.446,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.3305,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.3305,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Arsenal Sarandi",
"home": "Deportivo Camioneros"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.197563,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.4028,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499467,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T09:42:17.766632+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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