Dự báo đáng tin cậy
Bản tóm tắt:
Mô hình và thị trường đều nghiêng về Real Pilar, nhưng không cho thấy nhóm nào được yêu thích hơn. Hòa và {giây} vẫn hợp lý - đây là một trận đấu tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý và giá cả thị trường khác nhau một cách khiêm tốn. Theo dõi trước giờ khai mạc.
Ước tính hợp lý cho thấy lợi thế khiêm tốn so với giá thị trường hiện tại của Real Pilar.
Tuy nhiên, Liniers đã có sự chênh lệch — tỷ lệ cược kéo dài thêm 0.0%, cho thấy mức hỗ trợ đang suy yếu.
Hoạt động thị trường hiện tập trung vào Liniers.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liniers | 30.14% | 32.91% | -2.8 pp |
| Hòa | 29.44% | 32.79% | -3.4 pp |
| Real Pilar | 40.42% | 34.29% | +6.1 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Liniers market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Liniers
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Giám sát thị trường
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
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"headline": "Balanced match",
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"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
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"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.13,
"hero_label": "Real Pilar",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Liniers has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Real Pilar.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Liniers.",
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"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Real Pilar.",
"However, Liniers has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Liniers."
],
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"title": "Market Assessment"
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"market_narrative": {
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"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Real Pilar.",
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"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Liniers."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
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"max_gap_pp": 6.13,
"model_validation": {
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"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
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},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
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{
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{
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}
],
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"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Liniers.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
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"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Real Pilar (34.3%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Real Pilar, Market \u2192 Real Pilar, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
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"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.02,
"entry_odds": 2.63,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
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"market_move_intelligence": {
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"market_overview": {
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"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Liniers",
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"steam_team_name": "Liniers",
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},
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 2422,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2422.webp",
"away_team_name": "Real Pilar",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499470,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 8395,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8395.webp",
"home_team_name": "Liniers",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-14 18:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Juan Antonio Arias Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
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"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
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"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4082,
"best_odd": 2.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0253,
"ev": -0.0317,
"implied_prob": 0.3429,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.3682
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4271,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1379,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
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"p_final": 0.3135
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4311,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0121,
"ev": -0.1312,
"implied_prob": 0.3291,
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}
},
"btts": {
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"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"edge_no": -0.1383,
"edge_yes": 0.1383,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2764,
"ev_yes": 0.355,
"implied_no": 0.5963,
"implied_yes": 0.4037,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 3.0,
"best_under_odd": 1.4,
"edge_over": 0.1563,
"edge_under": -0.1563,
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_under": -0.2748,
"implied_over": 0.3257,
"implied_under": 0.6743,
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"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.446,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0253,
"ev": -0.0317,
"implied_prob": 0.3429,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Real Pilar"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1383,
"ev": 0.355,
"implied_prob": 0.4037,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1563,
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499470,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.446,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4048,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.3012
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Real Pilar",
"home": "Liniers"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.19241,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.355,
"implied_prob": 0.4037,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499470,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T05:33:31.997579+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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