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Bản tóm tắt:
Mô hình và thị trường đều nghiêng về Deportivo Armenio, nhưng không cho thấy nhóm nào được yêu thích hơn. Hòa và {giây} vẫn hợp lý - đây là một trận đấu tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý khác biệt đáng kể so với giá thị trường hiện tại. Điều này có thể phản ánh sự bất đồng thực sự hoặc thông tin đánh giá đầu vào không đầy đủ.
Ước tính hợp lý về mặt thống kê cao hơn đáng kể so với thị trường trên Deportivo Armenio.
Tuy nhiên, Argentino Quilmes đã có sự chênh lệch — tỷ lệ cược kéo dài thêm 0.0%, cho thấy mức hỗ trợ đang suy yếu.
Hoạt động thị trường hiện tập trung vào Argentino Quilmes.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentino Quilmes | 32.85% | 41.23% | -8.4 pp |
| Hòa | 29.61% | 32.86% | -3.2 pp |
| Deportivo Armenio | 37.54% | 25.91% | +11.6 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Argentino Quilmes market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Argentino Quilmes
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Cảnh báo xác thực mô hình
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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"title": "Forecast Assessment",
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},
"forecast_certainty": {
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"tier_label": "Low"
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"hero_side": "away",
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"market_agreement": "weak",
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"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Argentino Quilmes has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Deportivo Armenio.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Argentino Quilmes.",
"paragraphs": [
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],
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"title": "Market Assessment"
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"market_narrative": {
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],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
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"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
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}
],
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"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Argentino Quilmes.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
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"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Deportivo Armenio, Market \u2192 Argentino Quilmes, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
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},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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"market_overview": {
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"move_display": "+0.0%",
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"steam_score": 30,
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"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
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"show": true
},
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 2427,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2427.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportivo Armenio",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499463,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 8376,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8376.webp",
"home_team_name": "Argentino Quilmes",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-14 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Quilmes",
"venue_name": "Barranca Quilmena stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
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],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
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"p_final": 0.288
},
"draw": {
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"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
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},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
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"calibration": {
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},
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"best_yes_odd": 2.62,
"edge_no": -0.1484,
"edge_yes": 0.1484,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2674,
"ev_yes": 0.4279,
"implied_no": 0.6034,
"implied_yes": 0.3966,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 3.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.41,
"edge_over": 0.16,
"edge_under": -0.16,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.5665,
"ev_under": -0.2696,
"implied_over": 0.322,
"implied_under": 0.678,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5665,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": 0.0079,
"implied_prob": 0.2591,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Deportivo Armenio"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1484,
"ev": 0.4279,
"implied_prob": 0.3966,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.16,
"ev": 0.5665,
"implied_prob": 0.322,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499463,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5665,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5665,
"implied_prob": 0.322,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5665,
"implied_prob": 0.322,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo Armenio",
"home": "Argentino Quilmes"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.233206,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4279,
"implied_prob": 0.3966,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499463,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T05:20:25.587751+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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