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Bản tóm tắt:
Cả hai đều nạc Comunicaciones, nhưng thị trường định giá chúng cao hơn (44.8% so với mô hình 35.2%). Lợi thế vẫn còn khiêm tốn và trận đấu vẫn tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý khác biệt đáng kể so với giá thị trường hiện tại. Điều này có thể phản ánh sự bất đồng thực sự hoặc thông tin đánh giá đầu vào không đầy đủ.
Ước tính hợp lý về mặt thống kê cao hơn đáng kể so với thị trường trên Deportivo Laferrere.
Tuy nhiên, Comunicaciones đã có sự chênh lệch — tỷ lệ cược kéo dài thêm 0.0%, cho thấy mức hỗ trợ đang suy yếu.
Hoạt động thị trường hiện tập trung vào Comunicaciones.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comunicaciones | 35.17% | 44.78% | -9.6 pp |
| Hòa | 29.65% | 31.13% | -1.5 pp |
| Deportivo Laferrere | 35.17% | 24.08% | +11.1 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Comunicaciones market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Comunicaciones
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Cảnh báo xác thực mô hình
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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"api_prediction": {
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{
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{
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"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
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"bookmaker_affi": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
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"display_market": "Comunicaciones Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
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"value_rating": "no_value"
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"betting_markets": {
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"strong_pick": true,
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"scores": [
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{
"away": 1,
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"label": "0-1",
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{
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"label": "1-0",
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{
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{
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"double_chance": {
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{
"key": "12",
"label": "Comunicaciones or Deportivo Laferrere",
"prob": 70.4
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{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Deportivo Laferrere",
"prob": 64.8
}
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"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Comunicaciones or Deportivo Laferrere",
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"match_winner": {
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"home_pct": 35.2,
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"over_under": {
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"under_prob": 51.8
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"label": "Away",
"market": "Deportivo Laferrere Win",
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"odds": 3.95
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"most_likely": {
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"home_xg": 1.3,
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"market_cards": [
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"tier": "lean"
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{
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}
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"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"hero_edge_pp": 11.09,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"market_prob_pct": 44.8,
"market_team": "Comunicaciones",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Comunicaciones",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
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"market_prob": 44.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
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"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.09,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"market_prob": 24.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.68,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
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{
"edge_pp": -12.68,
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"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.78,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.78,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 11.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"market_prob_pct": 24.08,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Comunicaciones"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 11.09,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Comunicaciones",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 44.8,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Both lean Comunicaciones, but the market prices them higher (44.8% vs model 35.2%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.09,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Comunicaciones has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Deportivo Laferrere.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Comunicaciones.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Deportivo Laferrere.",
"However, Comunicaciones has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Comunicaciones."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Deportivo Laferrere more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Comunicaciones has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Comunicaciones."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 11.09,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Comunicaciones",
"market_prob_pct": 44.78,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.13,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"market_prob_pct": 24.08,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Comunicaciones.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Comunicaciones (44.8%).",
"Both lean Comunicaciones, but the market prices them higher (44.8% vs model 35.2%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "model_validation_warning",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Model validation warning",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.49,
"entry_odds": 3.77,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Comunicaciones",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Comunicaciones",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 1924,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1924.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499464,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 8008,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8008.webp",
"home_team_name": "Comunicaciones",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 18:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Alfredo Ramos stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2501,
"best_odd": 3.775,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0277,
"ev": 0.0138,
"implied_prob": 0.2408,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.2686
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.44,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.11,
"implied_prob": 0.3113,
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3048
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3852,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.037,
"ev": -0.166,
"implied_prob": 0.4478,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.4108
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"edge_no": -0.1278,
"edge_yes": 0.1278,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2401,
"ev_yes": 0.2971,
"implied_no": 0.5828,
"implied_yes": 0.4172,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.65,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"edge_over": 0.1268,
"edge_under": -0.1268,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2773,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"implied_over": 0.3552,
"implied_under": 0.6448,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2971,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.037,
"ev": -0.166,
"implied_prob": 0.4478,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Comunicaciones"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1278,
"ev": 0.2971,
"implied_prob": 0.4172,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1268,
"ev": 0.2773,
"implied_prob": 0.3552,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499464,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2971,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2773,
"implied_prob": 0.3552,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2773,
"implied_prob": 0.3552,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"home": "Comunicaciones"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.161919,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2971,
"implied_prob": 0.4172,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499464,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T09:41:34.203102+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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