Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone D / USD Casatese vs Arconatese

USD Casatese vs Arconatese Statistics & Analysis

USD Casatese USD Casatese
Sep 06, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 77%
Arconatese Arconatese
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 USD Casatese USD Casatese ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6357975

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result USD Casatese win · USD Casatese 2–1 Arconatese
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie D - Girone D
  • Fixture: USD Casatese vs Arconatese
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): USD Casatese 1.32 — Arconatese 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone D Serie D - Girone D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pistoiese 4 4 0 0 12
2 Pro Patria 4 4 0 0 12
3 Pro Sesto 4 3 0 1 9
4 Lentigione 4 3 0 1 9
5 USD Casatese 4 2 1 1 7
6 Cittadella Vis Modena 4 2 1 1 7
7 Castellanzese 4 2 0 2 6
8 Sant'Angelo 4 1 3 0 6
9 Città di Varese 4 1 2 1 5
10 Correggese 4 1 2 1 5
11 Varesina 4 1 1 2 4
12 Coriano 4 1 1 2 4
13 Pavia 3 0 3 0 3
14 Oltrepò 3 1 0 2 3
15 Solbiatese 4 0 2 2 2
16 Crema 4 0 1 3 1
17 Arconatese 4 0 1 3 1
18 Pontedera 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pistoiese 4 11 1 +10 12
2 Pro Patria 4 10 3 +7 12
3 Pro Sesto 4 10 3 +7 9
4 Castellanzese 4 7 4 +3 6
5 Lentigione 4 6 4 +2 9
6 USD Casatese 4 6 4 +2 7
7 Correggese 4 5 6 -1 5
8 Varesina 4 5 6 -1 4
9 Cittadella Vis Modena 4 4 3 +1 7
10 Sant'Angelo 4 4 3 +1 6
11 Città di Varese 4 4 3 +1 5
12 Coriano 4 3 4 -1 4
13 Pontedera 4 3 12 -9 0
14 Oltrepò 3 2 3 -1 3
15 Arconatese 4 2 11 -9 1
16 Solbiatese 4 1 6 -5 2
17 Crema 4 1 8 -7 1
18 Pavia 3 0 0 0 3
Serie D - Girone D Italy. Serie D - Girone D Predictions