The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Lentigione at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Lentigione Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Città di Varese | 32.4% | 26.2% | +6.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.5% | +1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Lentigione | 38.0% | 45.3% | -7.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Lentigione's win probability at 45.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Lentigione. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Lentigione; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Lentigione by 7.3 percentage points (45.3% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Città di Varese 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Lentigione 38.0%
- xG · Città di Varese 1.24 — Lentigione 1.36
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Città di Varese 3.39 · Draw 3.12 · Lentigione 1.96
- Implied 1X2 · Città di Varese 26.2% · Draw 28.5% · Lentigione 45.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Città di Varese 3.39 · Draw 3.12 · Lentigione 1.96
- Implied 1X2 · Città di Varese 26.2% · Draw 28.5% · Lentigione 45.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Serie D - Girone D — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Pro Sesto | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Sant'Angelo | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | USD Casatese | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Castellanzese | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Città di Varese | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Varesina | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Coriano | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Correggese | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Pavia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Oltrepò | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Solbiatese | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Crema | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 17 | Arconatese | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 4 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 4 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Pro Sesto | 4 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 4 | Castellanzese | 4 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 | Sant'Angelo | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 8 |
| 6 | Lentigione | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | USD Casatese | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 8 | Varesina | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Città di Varese | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Correggese | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Coriano | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Pontedera | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 |
| 14 | Oltrepò | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arconatese | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 1 |
| 16 | Solbiatese | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 2 |
| 17 | Crema | 4 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 | Pavia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
