AI correctly predicted the Pistoiese win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Pistoiese Pistoiese ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pistoiese | 45.8% | 71.2% | -25.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.8% | 17.7% | +11.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Sant'Angelo | 25.4% | 11.1% | +14.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Pistoiese's win probability at 71.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.8%, a difference of 25.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Pistoiese win 3–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Pistoiese attacking xG significantly stronger (1.52 vs 1.08)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Pistoiese higher (71.2% vs model 45.8%, 25.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Pistoiese win 3–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Pistoiese 45.8% · Draw 28.8% · Sant'Angelo 25.4%
- xG · Pistoiese 1.52 — Sant'Angelo 1.08
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Pistoiese 1.25 · Draw 5.02 · Sant'Angelo 8.05
- Implied 1X2 · Pistoiese 71.2% · Draw 17.7% · Sant'Angelo 11.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Pistoiese 1.25 · Draw 5.02 · Sant'Angelo 8.05
- Implied 1X2 · Pistoiese 71.2% · Draw 17.7% · Sant'Angelo 11.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Pistoiese win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (25 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Serie D - Girone D — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Pro Sesto | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Sant'Angelo | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | USD Casatese | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Castellanzese | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Città di Varese | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Varesina | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Coriano | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Correggese | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Pavia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Oltrepò | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Solbiatese | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Crema | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 17 | Arconatese | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 4 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 4 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Pro Sesto | 4 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 4 | Castellanzese | 4 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 | Sant'Angelo | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 8 |
| 6 | Lentigione | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | USD Casatese | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 8 | Varesina | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Città di Varese | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Correggese | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Coriano | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Pontedera | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 |
| 14 | Oltrepò | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arconatese | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 1 |
| 16 | Solbiatese | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 2 |
| 17 | Crema | 4 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 | Pavia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
