Prediction Audit: Cittadella Vis Modena vs Correggese Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cittadella Vis Modena

Sep 27, 2026 - 13:00

0 1.33

1 1.27

xG Accuracy: 64%

Correggese

The model missed the final outcome (Correggese win 0–1).

The model had projected Cittadella Vis Modena at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Cittadella Vis Modena Correggese ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Cittadella Vis Modena	36.6%	53.3%	-16.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	26.2%	+3.5 pp	Aligned
Correggese	33.8%	20.6%	+13.2 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Cittadella Vis Modena's win probability at 53.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 16.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was Correggese win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Cittadella Vis Modena than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

1X2: model leaned Cittadella Vis Modena; match finished Correggese

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Cittadella Vis Modena by 16.7 percentage points (53.3% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 27, 2026 · 12:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cittadella Vis Modena 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Correggese 33.8%
- xG · Cittadella Vis Modena 1.33 — Correggese 1.27
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cittadella Vis Modena 1.67 · Draw 3.40 · Correggese 4.33
- Implied 1X2 · Cittadella Vis Modena 53.3% · Draw 26.2% · Correggese 20.6%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Cittadella Vis Modena 1.67 · Draw 3.40 · Correggese 4.33
- Implied 1X2 · Cittadella Vis Modena 53.3% · Draw 26.2% · Correggese 20.6%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Correggese win · 0–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (17 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10094322

Closing Odds 1.67

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Correggese win · Cittadella Vis Modena 0–1 Correggese

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie D - Girone D
Fixture: Cittadella Vis Modena vs Correggese
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Cittadella Vis Modena 1.33 — Correggese 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone D — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Pistoiese	4	4	0	0	12
2	Pro Patria	4	4	0	0	12
3	Pro Sesto	4	3	0	1	9
4	Lentigione	4	3	0	1	9
5	Sant'Angelo	4	2	2	0	8
6	USD Casatese	4	2	1	1	7
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	4	2	1	1	7
8	Castellanzese	4	2	0	2	6
9	Città di Varese	4	1	2	1	5
10	Varesina	4	1	1	2	4
11	Coriano	4	1	1	2	4
12	Correggese	4	1	1	2	4
13	Pavia	3	0	3	0	3
14	Oltrepò	3	1	0	2	3
15	Solbiatese	4	0	2	2	2
16	Crema	4	0	1	3	1
17	Arconatese	4	0	1	3	1
18	Pontedera	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Pistoiese	4	11	1	+10	12
2	Pro Patria	4	10	3	+7	12
3	Pro Sesto	4	10	3	+7	9
4	Castellanzese	4	7	4	+3	6
5	Sant'Angelo	4	6	2	+4	8
6	Lentigione	4	6	4	+2	9
7	USD Casatese	4	6	4	+2	7
8	Varesina	4	5	6	-1	4
9	Cittadella Vis Modena	4	4	3	+1	7
10	Città di Varese	4	4	3	+1	5
11	Correggese	4	4	8	-4	4
12	Coriano	4	3	4	-1	4
13	Pontedera	4	3	12	-9	0
14	Oltrepò	3	2	3	-1	3
15	Arconatese	4	2	11	-9	1
16	Solbiatese	4	1	6	-5	2
17	Crema	4	1	8	-7	1
18	Pavia	3	0	0	0	3