Statistics / Football / Norway. 2. Division - Group 1 / Bjarg vs Træff

Bjarg vs Træff Statistics & Analysis

Bjarg Bjarg
Sep 20, 2026 - 14:00
6 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 26%
Træff Træff
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bjarg Bjarg ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8678326

Closing Odds 1.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Bjarg win · Bjarg 6–1 Træff
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Træff (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Bjarg (1X2) 36.6 63.7 -27.1
Draw (1X2) 29.6 19.9 +9.8
Træff (1X2) 33.8 16.5 +17.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.5 -18.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.5 +18.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.5%. The difference — about 18.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Bjarg (1X2) 1.44 1.44 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.61 4.61 0.0
Træff (1X2) 5.57 5.57 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.4 1.4 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.78 2.78 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 2. Division - Group 1
  • Fixture: Bjarg vs Træff
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Bjarg 1.33 — Træff 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
2. Division - Group 1 2. Division - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 jerv 20 15 3 2 48
2 Brattvåg 20 12 3 5 39
3 Mjondalen 20 12 2 6 38
4 Sotra 20 11 3 6 36
5 Bjarg 19 11 2 6 35
6 Notodden 19 9 5 5 32
7 Kvik Halden 20 9 4 7 31
8 Træff 19 8 6 5 30
9 Arendal 19 7 5 7 26
10 Pors Grenland 19 5 5 9 20
11 Sandviken 20 5 4 11 19
12 Lysekloster 19 3 5 11 14
13 Vidar 20 2 4 14 10
14 Eik-Tønsberg 20 2 1 17 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 jerv 20 43 18 +25 48
2 Sotra 20 42 20 +22 36
3 Brattvåg 20 41 24 +17 39
4 Bjarg 19 36 25 +11 35
5 Mjondalen 20 36 27 +9 38
6 Træff 19 35 30 +5 30
7 Sandviken 20 29 43 -14 19
8 Kvik Halden 20 28 24 +4 31
9 Arendal 19 27 30 -3 26
10 Notodden 19 26 15 +11 32
11 Lysekloster 19 21 40 -19 14
12 Eik-Tønsberg 20 21 47 -26 7
13 Pors Grenland 19 20 27 -7 20
14 Vidar 20 18 53 -35 10
2. Division - Group 1 Norway. 2. Division - Group 1 Predictions